Mid-day Update

New high, but holding its target.

The reaction from the open’s 2759.50 high had reacted down to 2753.25. Being pessimistically short of actually touching last week’s 2560.00 high, its recovery was likely. And its recovery was likely to be measured in points, not ticks.

In fact, the morning’s high did touch 2760.00 before the bias environment began lapsing. Its reaction into the noon hour was recovered to probe fresh highs up to 2765.50.

That’s also a test of this afternoon’s 2765.25 bias-up target. It held through 1:20 to avoid renewing the 2759.25 bias-up signal. But this is still a bias-up environment. If tested, 2759.25 should define the window’s lower-end. It can be broken durably later.

Nothing requires reversing down. Extending up is possible, but less likely since relevant resistance held through a relevant window. Meanwhile, this afternoon is vulnerable to backing-and-filling, and potentially reversing back down.

Recovery ranging between obligatory levels.

The open’s plunge back to and through overnight lows was recovered entirely during the morning bias environment. Down from 2746.75 to 2736.50, and back up to 2748.50. Flat-to-higher ranging since then eked its way back above yesterday morning’s 2748.00 lows to attack yesterday’s 2750.75 close.

2748.00 and 2750.75. Not quite the proverbial “rock and a hard place.” But still relevant support / resistance whose recovery or rejection through a relevant window would be likely to extend in that direction.

Back under 2746.50 would start to signal another downleg underway targeting 2730.75. There’s otherwise no requirement to trend any more for the balance of today — or tomorrow morning, either, if the balance of today hasn’t ranged away from 2748.00 and 2750.75.

Barely triggering bias-up.

Another touch of the open’s 2748.00 low reacted back up to the morning’s 2753.50 highs. The reaction extended as the bias environment came within view of lapsing. Higher high probed the 2757.50 bias-up target by 1 point before the bias environment began lapsing.

That probe’s 2758.50 high happened to become this afternoon’s bias-up signal. Ranging flat-to-lower through the noon hour showed no interest in resuming the rally. But the noon hour exit was attacking the morning’s high to within 1 tick. It was touched just in time to invoke the grace period.

Attacking 2758.50 to within 1 tick, and touching it within the last minute. Actually triggering bias-up is no less hesitant. While 2758.50 was recovered in time to trigger late, it was recovered by 1 tick. AND there’s still no further improvement 10 minutes later.

I’ll give the bias-up signal a benefit of the doubt. But sellers aren’t marginalized. And back under 2757.00 would be credible for reversing momentum down anyway.

Rallying back into new highs.

Not recovering 2742.50 had all but marginalized buyers for the morning. Not maintaining a break under 2739.00 had avoided sellers gaining traction. Trending down or probing lower was possible, but not required. And now the morning bias environment has lapsed.

When moment the morning bias environment began lapsing, the upside limitation began failing. Probing above 2742.50 has extended nearly 5 points to attack overnight highs within 2 ticks.

The overnight high isn’t a new Globex trend extreme that would require intraday retest. But being so close, it’s retest is likely. And it’s retest is preferable before assuming any dip is extending down. Meanwhile, overbought 1-minute and 3-minute RSIs also make any premature dip likely to recover for at least a retest of the high.

At least a probe of fresh highs is likely.

Testing the 2733.00 bias-up target became likely when the 2727.75 bias-up signal triggered. Also testing the 2734.75 Globex high became likely upon getting back into its orbit at 2733.00. Both were done before the morning bias environment lapsed.

The noon hour dipped to 2731.00, and then back up to 2734.25. Now the afternoon has triggered no-bias. But Friday Factors open the door to simply drifting higher during the afternoon. That would have been more reliable had fresh highs been probed this morning. But exiting the bias environment at 2:30 above the morning’s highs could still extend.

Until actually probing a fresh high, and maintaining it, there remains nearer-term risk of reversing back down to fresh session lows.