Mid-day Update

Firming into the afternoon.

This morning’s opening surge from 2501.00 had taken some time before extending higher. But it extended higher. The noon hour extended higher, too. Not much, but it extended higher.  This afternoon’s 2507.00 bias-up signal is being tested.

Extending higher wasn’t required. And now it’s also difficult. Still testing 2507.00 at both 1:20 and 1:30 has triggered noN-bias. Which is to say that neither bias-up nor no-bias triggered. No upside attraction, and no requirement to hold resistance.

Often, the noN-bias will behave like no-bias and hold resistance. Often, noN-bias will hover at its bias-up signal to break through it when no longer no-bias trending.

Hovering at the bias signal through the bias environment lapsing often rallies, anyway. If the setup reacts down, then it should not be produced by strong hands.

Gap filled, probed… held?

This morning’s slide back under the 2499.50 bias-up signal extended to 2493.00. Its probe into negative territory under 2495.50 was recovered through the bias environment exit. The noon hour barely avoided turning negative again.

And now the bias afternoon environment is being greeted back up at 2499.50. Its retest would have been required had this morning triggered no-bias before probing under it. Retesting it anyway isn’t predictive, but reversing down again from its retest would be bearish.

So, back under 2497.50 would get one opportunity to resume the decline. Extending above 2501.50 as the bias environment begins lapsing would suggest no other dip is coming. Greeting Trump’s 3:20 tax reform speech from beyond either would be likely to extend in that direction.

Morning break retraced, but not rejected.

Triggering this morning’s 2498.00 bias-up signal didn’t extend above the 2499.00-2501.00 post-open range. More so, it was reversed into a slide instead of rallying.

Similar to yesterday, the bias signal held until several minutes after its break would have invalidated the bias-up. Also similar to yesterday — which was a no-bias environment — the late break didn’t prevent sliding sharply.

A minimum objective at 2495.50 was tested on the way to 2492.50 support. The bias environment began lapsing with a 5-point bounce into the noon hour. Similar to yesterday, “unfinished business above” is left outstanding at 2503.50 (similar to yesterday).

Now this afternoon’s 2498.25 bias-up signal is being tested, in a no-bias environment. The attractions above could help to break through. Meanwhile, 2498.25 should define the range’s upper-end, and back under 2495.50 would trigger another slide.

Break lower can end today, or not for awhile.

The prior week’s multi-session range that was providing support at 2495.50 is now providing resistance at 2492.50. And chipping away at 2495.50 did reveal the “air pocket” below it as was suspected. Its break was likely to produce a test of 2485.00-2486.00, which is where the air pocket bottomed. The next lower objective is essentially 2460.00, but the catalyst being a headline could avoid that — if recovered today.

Recovering today would have plenty of upside. This morning’s bias parameter had put into play an offsetting test of its 2503.00 bias-up signal. And it wasn’t rejected. The 2496.00 bias-down signal wasn’t broken until after 10:30. Its 2489.75 bias-down target was still being overlapped as the bias environment was lapsing. Bias intact, so 2503.00 has become “unfinished business above.”

I’d much prefer the confidence of clearly holding 2489.75 as support, or breaking it. Fresh session lows are possible, regardless of an attraction above to 2503.00. exiting the noon hour back above 2492.50 would have suggested a detour has been avoided. Triggering bias-down would have said otherwise. Neither setup formed.

Narrower range than yesterday.

Thursday morning’s post-open plunge had been productive, triggering bias-down and creating an attraction below. That initial shake-up didn’t force its corrective bounce to resolve intraday. At least, not any more than slipping slightly into the close.

Last night’s plunge certainly hasn’t forced its corrective bounce to resolve. Not, yet. Perhaps this afternoon will slip into the close, too, like yesterday. Unlike yesterday, not only slightly. Slipping into the close for a second consecutive session — ahead of the weekend’s illiquidity, and with support chipped away — could be substantial.

The most relevant question about an afternoon slide wouldn’t be how deep, but how soon. Strong-handed sponsorship would make itself obvious as the bias environment begins lapsing, or sooner. By the same token, not yet breaking lower before the final hour would become vulnerable to a weak-handed bounce into the close.