Mid-day Update

Narrowly sideways into and out of the noon hour.

The open’s rally made it to 2466.50. The bias environment exit needed to hold 2463.00 to maintain potential for extending up to 2471.00-2473.50. It was attacked to within 2 ticks, and the rally never resumed.

Neither has it been rejected. Not, yet.

That’s not decisive enough to confirm higher targets in-play. Or, that Thursday’s trend change won’t attract the close back under 2459.00. At least a couple of attempts to trigger a new rally leg have failed. Meanwhile, exiting the afternoon bias environment under 2463.00 would be credible for reversing momentum down.

Ranging narrowly sideways, not a care in the world.

This morning’s bounce up to 2446.50 trended back down to 2438.00 as the bias environment lapsed. Only firming since then back up to 2444.00, the afternoon bias environment triggered no-bias above 2442.00.

A constant rule on Fridays is that something tried and failed in the morning is likely to fail if tried in the afternoon. Today, that’s the morning’s recovery effort. It can be overcome, but buyers are held to a higher standard of proof. Exiting the noon hour at fresh session highs would have worked, but that window has closed.

Attempts to trend away from 2442.00 won’t be easy initially. A sustained break probably needs to be aggressive to be credible. A shallow break that doesn’t immediately recover could begin attracting sponsorship might deserve several minutes before its opportunity to extend can be dismissed.

Noon hour lows not extending.

Failing to absorb the open’s dip meant trending down through the morning. And probably also the noon hour. The morning bias environment did lapse at fresh session lows around 2447.00. The noon hour probed down to 2442.75. And now the afternoon bias environment is being entered back above 2447.00 up to 2450.00.

Are sellers done for the day? Having held the 2446.00 bias-down signal instead of triggering it, there’s no bias-down target in-play. And this morning’s doubly-renewed 2445.75 bias-down target was already tested. But until today’s series of lower lows and lower highs is reversed, the pattern will remain vulnerable to resuming the decline.

Back above 2452.00 would suggest a bigger bounce is forming. But under 2447.00 could probe fresh session lows, even during the no-bias environment.

Bounce back up to yesterday’s low still holding.

The morning’s bounces had attacked and pierced yesterday’s late 2467.50 low as resistance. The bounces were shallow enough to maintain the downward momentum, but suspiciously numerous. The last reaction down was suspiciously shallow, holding 2463.50. Sellers weren’t exploiting the gap down.

The bias environment exit squeezed in one more bounce back up to its 2469.25 bias-down signal. The noon hour fluctuated around it initially, then reacted down from it eventually. So, buyers failed to exploit their opportunity, too.

Now the afternoon has triggered no-bias. There’s room to dip to the 2464.50 bias-down signal while awaiting the bias environment lapsing. This would be optimal for keeping live potential for a new downleg today. That potential disappears if fresh session highs were to do more than just fill the gap back up to yesterday’s 2472.00-2473.00 close.

New highs printed, with dubious timing that tries reverse down.

Holding a test of the 2472.75 bias-down signal had put into play an offsetting test of the 2478.75 bias-up signal. The most bullish scenario I described for this morning was to attack yesterday’s ~2478.00 highs and then break higher this afternoon. The rally was too impatient to wait, and surged to new highs at 2488.50.

The move originated during a no-bias environment whose bias-up signal should have defined the window’s upper-end. Alternatively, the “no-bias” trending could be retraced back down to 2478.75, if not also to the 2475.50 10:15 print.

2478.75 was retraced as this afternoon’s bias environment began. It was probed by 1 point before bouncing. Another dip is threatening to reach 2475.50.

Meanwhile, there is no “unfinished business above.” Only 2484.00 needed to be met. Closing above it would suggest a bigger rally underway targeting 2515.00 (2504.00-2522.00). Otherwise, closing under the 2472.50-2474.00 open would form a Pivot Reversal that points down sharply. For awhile.