Mid-day Update

Bearish WedEX isn’t hibernating.

This morning’s break tested all but 1 tick of its 2345.00-2346.00 objective. Reacting up to 2350.75 was reversed down immediately at noon.

Immediately, and substantially, back into the 2345.00-2346.00 range. Flat-to-higher ranging resolved down coming out of the noon hour. Substantially, plunging to touch this afternoon’s 2340.75 bias-down target.

Holding the bias-down target doesn’t renew this afternoon’s 2346.00 bias-down signal. But this is nevertheless a bias-down environment. And the afternoon’s bearish WedEX is apparently exercising its influence.

Yesterday’s 2341.00 opening print is obligatory support. Its break would next target filling the gap back down to Wednesday’s 2334.00 closes, and essentially 2327.25 below it. Recovering 2350.50 would be earliest to suspect a bullish resolution underway.

Morning’s consolidation breaks higher. A lot higher.

Extending yesterday morning’s gap up through 2345.00 would have targeted 2352.00 and potentially 2360.00-2362.00. But the gap up stalled and plunged.

Gapping up today was irrelevant. But it triggered bias-up, and the bias environment hovered under its 2345.50 target. That restrained optimism was combined with a Symmetrical Triangle that broke higher into the bias environment lapsing.

2345.50 didn’t slow down the break higher. It has extended to 2354.25. That’s within 3 ticks of this afternoon’s bias-up target. So, not actually touching it isn’t required. But reversing won’t be triggered from above 2349.75. And extending higher would next target 2360.00-2361.00.

Beige Book ahead.

Rallying through the first half-hour to test 2349.00 didn’t begin optimally. Does its reversal down to attack 2338.00 correct it?

The open’s problems finally caught up with it. Not extending this morning’s gap up. Not maintaining the probe above the bias-up target. Violating the pullback limit. Add those problems to those that have been mounting problems since the weekend. Not rallying until very close to Monday’s open. Delaying Tuesday’s recovery of the morning’s bias-down signal. Not gaining traction Tuesday afternoon.

All of which could have been absorbed. Indeed, the problems WERE being absorbed. Tuesday morning’s reaction down was recovered. And this morning’s reaction down entered the noon hour in positive territory. Retracing to this morning’s 2341.75 bias-up signal during the morning’s bias environment would have essentially put into play new lows. But its test was delayed until after noon, so its break doesn’t have to be fatal.

But its break is not yet recovered. In fact, 2341.75 is being tested as resistance as the bias environment is entered. The gap back to yesterday’s close and the 2337.75 bias-down signal were attacked but not triggered. Beige Book is due at the top of the hour, which undermines trending.

Any recovery potential will be based on recovering a prior high at a relevant time, like exiting the bias environment above 2343.50. Otherwise, back under 2339.00 would be vulnerable to resuming the decline.

Bias exit’s drop neither extended nor recovered.

This morning’s 2337.75 bias-down signal held its test easily through 10:15. That put into play an offsetting test of the 2347.25 bias-up target — essentially last night’s high. Meanwhile, the gap back to yesterday’s 2345.00 close had been filled to within 2-3 ticks. Its natural resistance had already triggered a reaction down.

The reaction down extended. The 2337.75 bias-down signal was tested as support into 10:30 to avoid invalidating the 10:15 bias signal. The last opportunity to invalidate the morning’s bias signal would be to enter the noon hour under its bias-down target. Plunging out of the morning’s bias environment exit tried to do exactly that.

The plunge attacked 2330.00 at noon, but was still overlapping the 2332.50 bias-down target. Still not enough to invalidate the morning’s bias. Another higher offset is now outstanding at 2347.25.

Regardless of the new “unfinished business above,” exiting the noon hour back above 2337.75 would have reversed momentum up. That didn’t happen. It’s being touched only now, along with the resistance of this afternoon’s 2337.00 bias-up signal.

Probing 2337.00-2337.75 during the next half-hour would be “no-bias trending” and doomed to failure. Delaying its probe until the bias environment would still be credible for extending higher into the close — preferably also recovering the morning’s 2341.00 last relative high into the final hour.

Otherwise, exiting the bias environment in decline would resume the earlier slide, and extend it down sharply to 2321.00 and lower.

Ranging narrowly at the morning’s high.

False break, or not, this morning’s bias environment exit was probing above its 2337.25 bias-up target. To 2339.00. The noon hour was greeted by a dip to 2335.50 that bounced back up to 2339.00. And now a shallower dip has also recovered to 2339.00.

2339.00 is this afternoon’s bias-up signal. For all of that testing, it still did not trigger. Its resistance has served to define an Ascending Triangle pattern. Breaking higher during this afternoon’s no-bias environment would likely probe higher, despite being “no-bias trending” that is doomed to failure.

Meanwhile, all overbought RSIs have been neutralized. And this morning’s rally is likely to be retraced at some point, regardless. Back under 2336.50 would signal that retracement is today.