S&P
Post-open Review… Toe pick.
Sticky close is undermining trending attempts.
The opening print was at this mornings 2165.50 bias-up signal. Price quickly slid to Friday’s 2161.50 and 2160.00 futures and cash session closes. That also tested Friday’s “lower prior highs,” which launched a bounce up to 2168.00 through the bias timing window. But the 2165.50 bias-up signal was overlapped within 3 minutes of 10:15 to invoke the grace period.
Late bias-down triggered at 10:30, instead of bias-up, despite the grace period having been triggered at the earliest possible moment during a surge higher. But the overnight surge was also rejected, so the bias signal’s weakness was not an anomaly. An offsetting test of the 2153.50 bias-down signal is in-play.
Overnight probing above Friday’s range was not isolated. So, backing-and-filling into Friday’s range can still resolve bullishly. The 2158.00 overnight low was just touched, finally probing post-open under unchanged, making a deeper probe likely.
Pre-market Tour (recording & summary)
The drop from the 2174.50 overnight high has been retraced by 61.8% to test 2169.00. That’s also the preliminary signal whose recovery through 9:45 would suggest bias-up will trigger at 10:15. Nothing prevents the bullish scenario from rallying immediately post-open to extend the pre-open bounce. Rejecting the pre-open bounce need not develop so quickly, but back under 2163.50 would start to suggest at least a retest of Friday’s “lower prior highs.”
Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the pre-market Tour recording here.
The First Trade…Bubbling up.
Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.
CHARTROOM LINK
(pre-open Market Tour begins at 8:55 ET)
Through the prior close…
Friday’s 8-10 point gap down fell another 8 points through the morning, and still managed only to attack Thursday’s 2147.75 lows. That relative shallowness is a product of how wide ranging was Thursday’s choppy session. The balance of Friday’s session fluctuated back up to the 2156.50-2162.00 open, within the morning’s range, which reflected the narrower participation of the Veteran’s Day holiday. No unfinished business was left outstanding.
Overnight action’s new info…
Friday recovery back up to its morning highs resumed immediately. And the wide-ranging choppiness of Thursday resumed, too. Sunday night’s open gapped up 5 points and extended relentlessly to attack 2174.00. Reacting down to attack 2165.50 was recovered to 2174.00, which held several tests as resistance through Europe’s opens. Gradually slipping from there suddenly broke sharply lower, briefly probing negative territory and Friday’s “lower prior highs” down to 2158.00. A recovery attempt is now testing 2165.00.
If, then…
Attraction to higher objective remains stronger than any signs that the slowing upside momentum is rolling over. Gapping up and extending higher Sunday night suggests that attraction remains influential, but its reaction reminds us to be watchful for more backing-and-filling first. That downside become likelier if today’s open is back under Friday’s 2161.00-2162.00 highs, which would isolate Sunday night’s rally to the overnight. Otherwise, extending higher to retest 2180.00 intraday would still be vulnerable to reacting down, instead of fulfilling its potential to 2185.00-2186.00.
First Trade…
[Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 above 2169.00 would be likely to trigger the 2165.50 bias-up signal at 10:15. Exiting the open under 2158.75 would be unlikely to trigger bias-up.
Morning Bias
| MON morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2168.50 | 2165.50 |
| …would target | 2175.00 | 2172.00 |
| Bias-down: under | 2156.50 | 2153.50 |
| …would target | 2151.00 | 2148.00 |
| Signal status: LATE NO-BIAS, TESTED BIAS-UP SIGNAL | FAQ | |
| INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 | ||
1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Post-market Wrap (recording & summary)
Friday’s session didn’t accomplish much. It was more lightly-attended being the Veteran’s Day holiday, and a Friday. Limited sponsorship led to an Inside Day, despite beginning with a gap down. It’s still only “ineffectual pessimism,” which tends to be bullish, but has yet to be exploited.
Nothing was changed by Friday’s price action. Wednesday night’s test of the 2180.00 objective may stand, but it’s still likely to be tested intraday. And it’s still likely to hold that test, with or without probing it up to 2185.00-2186.00.
We’ll discuss that setup and others, and closely examine how Tuesday night’s plunge affects the bigger picture, during this weekend’s Saturday Review. I’ll email a reminder and link overnight.
Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here.