S&P
Look ahead: Economic Calendar – for Mon Feb 4, 2019
A midday look ahead in preparation for economic reports and events scheduled for the next trading day.
Highlights: No pre-open reports are due Monday. The post-open report isn’t usually high-profile or influential to price action.
Factory Orders
10:00 AM ET
TD Ameritrade IMX
12:30 PM ET
Afternoon Bias
| FRI afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2716.25 | 2715.00 |
| …would target | 2722.75 | 2721.50 |
| Bias-down: under | 2706.25 | 2705.00 |
| …would target | 2697.75 | 2696.50 |
| Signal status: noN-BIAS, TESTED BIAS-DOWN SIGNAL | . | |
| BIAS VIDEOS… INTRO // EXAMPLE | ||
1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Post-open Review… Getting back up.
Recovered dips suggesting higher rewards.
Optimism had been wrung from the market by fresh overnight lows down to 2696.25 ahead of the Employment Situation report. 
That better enabled a knee-jerk reaction up to 2709.25. All of which was still within the overnight range.
The reaction’s optimistic surge was also wrung out by dipping into and out of the open down through the first half-hour to 2699.00. Its reaction surged up to the 2711.00 bias-up signal in time to invoke the grace period.
Extending higher into 10:30 touched 2716.00, which easily triggered late bias-up. Extending higher post-10:15 also often improves the reliability of a late signal. It doesn’t prevent reacting down, such as now dipping back down to the 2711.00 bias-up signal.
The 2719.50 bias-up target is in-play. The lateness in finally breaking out has left behind a lot of congestion that will try attracting price back down, unless Friday Factors enable the morning’s trend to drift higher.
The First Trade & Pre-open Tour Recording… Paralyzed by anxiousness.
Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.
DAILY SCHEDULE
First, watch the pre-open Tour recording HERE <<==
Then, meet in the chaRTroom here by 9:15 ET for updates and Q&A
Through the prior close…
Thursday’s open had reversed down from probing Wednesday’s 2690.00 high to probe 5-6 points under the 2681.75 earlier Globex low. The reversal formed a potentially bearish Globex-flip setup, but it never confirmed under Wednesday’s 2674.25 last relative low. . The reversal was delayed so long it had developed a Too-late to break setup that offered an opportunity to recover. The recovery opportunity was exploited by a morning-long rally up to 2708.00, meeting the rally’s next higher target at 2701.00. was met. Perhaps inhibited ahead of the post-close AMZN earnings and anxiousness ahead of Friday’s pre-open Employment Situation report, the balance of the session ranged flat-to-lower down to 2693.00. Late comments regarding China trade negotiations triggered a surge attacking 2708.00 through the close.
Overnight action’s new info…
Sympathy with AMZN’s reaction to its warning was overcome by more China trade headlines that pushed price up to attack 2712.00 until the Globex open. Gapping back down to 2708.00 ranged sideways, nearly recovering while also eking out a deeper pullback to 2701.00. A relatively narrow 2701.00-2708.00 range has since contained price action, perhaps paralyzed by anxiousness ahead of this morning’s Eployment Situation report.
If, then… (notes to accompany the Tour recording)
Thursday’s late surge was early enough to have recovered 2701.00 before coming within 3 minutes of the cash session close. Closing above 2701.00 puts into play the next higher objective at 2756.00. Despite the catalyst for its recovery being a headline, 2701.00 doesn’t seem to be at risk of an opening rejection. Nevertheless, a second consecutive confirming close today is vital to maintaining the upside momentum. Otherwise, today could be devoted to only backing-and-filling, without reversing the trend back down, which would have room to 2656.00-2666.00.
First Trade…
[Click here to view the Bias parameters] No preliminary indications are considered before an Employment Situation report.
Morning Bias
| THU morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2712.25 | 2711.00 |
| …would target | 2720.75 | 2719.50 |
| Bias-down: under | 2699.75 | 2698.75 |
| …would target | 2692.25 | 2691.25 |
| Signal status: LATE BIAS-UP | . | |
| BIAS VIDEOS… INTRO // EXAMPLE | ||
1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.