S&P
Sunday night’s Globex link…
Trading will resume in several moments. Terror scares in New York, New Jersey and Minnesota greet the Globex open. Their effect on price action will be interesting, but otherwise irrelevant. I’ll check-in for anything requiring comment. You can monitor in the chaRTroom here.
Morning Bias
| MON morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2143.50 | 2136.00 |
| …would target | 2148.75 | 2141.50 |
| Bias-down: under | 2131.50 | 2124.25 |
| …would target | 2125.50 | 2118.00 |
| Signal status: BIAS-UP, BIAS-UP TARGET EXCEEDED | FAQ | |
| INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 | ||
1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Post-market Wrap (recording & summary)
Friday afternoon’s dip to its 2124.25 bias-down signal was probed down to 2123.00. RSIs were borderline oversold,. That held a test of the morning’s low, as much as it chipped away at its support. Its reaction up momentarily probed fresh session highs and touched 2134.00. Which held as resistance, after having gapped down under it. So, the distributive signal remains intact, distributive action persists, resistance held when it had an opportunity to recover, and any unfinished business is below.
Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here.
I’ll send a link overnight to the Saturday Review, which begins at 9:30am ET.
Daily Spot…
A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.
Eurodollar Sep Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Chipping away at the 1.1225 sell signal was finally exploited Friday, and with a vengeance, as the opens’ gap down to 1.1225 extended sharply lower intraday to test 1.1150. A second consecutive lower close Monday would then require at least an eventual third lower close.
Gold Dec Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Thursday’s bounce from testing 1212.00 support was retraced into Friday’s open, and eked lower during the day to eventually attack 1309.00. The 1296.00-1297.00 target is in-play.
Silver Dec Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Initially holding the multi-session range Friday morning eventually probed fresh relative lows, needing a second consecutive lower close Monday to confirm the prior low’s retest is likely underway.
30-year Treasury Dec Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Having held a retest of Tuesday’s low Thursday, the overnight probe above the 165-20 bounce limit was maintained through Friday morning. Its recovery through the close signals a bottom having formed and probably also momentum reversing up, still needing confirmation from a second consecutive higher close.
Crude Oil Oct Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Thursday’s attempt at forming a Pivot Reversal still needed Friday’s open to gap up, which it did not, which essentially confirmed the outstanding gap and fresh lows down to 42.25 remains in-play — which Friday’s fresh lows have now attacked to within 50 cents.
Natural Gas Oct Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Friday’s initial weakness was recovered to probe back above Thursday’s high, itself being the recovery of initially dipping ahead of the EIA report. A second consecutive higher close isn’t so much a buy signal at this stage of the pattern, as it is confirmation the uptrend targeting 3.04 remains intact. But it is also a breakout of the recent range.
Mid-day Update… Digging a deeper hole.
Retesting this morning’s low.
The gap down at 2131.00 and slide to 2123.25 was retraced entirely during the morning’s bias environment. The 2132.75 bias-down signal was attacked to within 1 tick where its resistance produced a reaction back down to 2125.50.
The noon hour bounced again, to within 3 ticks of 2132.75. Resistance pushed back again. This afternoon’s 2124.25 bias-down signal didn’t trigger, but it is being tested anyway down to 2123.00.
Being a no-bias environment, its 2124.25 bias-down signal should define the range’s lower-end. And, so far, it is. No bar probing a fresh low under 2124.25 isn’t also overlapping 2124.25. And its test has reacted up to 2127.25.
The bias environment will come within view of lapsing at 2:15-2:20. Breaking under 2124.25 would then be entirely credible for resuming the drop. The leg underway Wednesday afternoon would be confirmed under 2121.25, still targeting 2095.00. The alternative to breaking lower today isn’t necessarily to rally, but at least firming back toward today’s high.