S&P
Post-open Review… Sellers got this.
Post-open buying efforts meet bigger selling.
The open immediately probed 6 ticks under the pre-open low to 2131.25. That was the first 5 minutes, and it seemed pretty productive. But that was nothing. The next 5 minutes reacted up 8 points to touch 2139.00. Still bigger was yet to come.
The first half-hour ended by sliding 14 points to test 2125.00. And the decline has since extended to 2117.50.
The bias environment is being exited in a downtrend. The objectives are to retest yesterday’s post-open and overnight lows. And for having maintained the overnight downtrend, the decline is as vulnerable as possible to become uglier than Friday’s relentless intraday slide.
Recovering 2134.00 through the close could be the only credible invalidation to otherwise resuming Friday’s plunge with a vengeance.
Pre-market Tour (recording & summary)
The overnight decline persisted and has produced a fresh low at 2132.75. This is testing 2134.00, relevant both in the bigger picture, and for being this morning’s renewed bias-down target. The next lower support is at Monday afternoon’s 2130.50 low, which doesn’t require a test, but its test would be predictive. Gaps down are difficult to maintain when begun by relentless overnight trending, which is vulnerable to counter-trend sponsorship. However the open resolves this setup, the balance of the morning is likely to extend it.
Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the pre-market Tour recording here.
The First Trade… One day wonder?
Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.
CHARTROOM LINK
(pre-open Market Tour begins at 8:55 ET)
Through the prior close…
Monday’s post-open rally had climbed 44 points into the 2154.00 bias-environment high. Ranging back down to 2150.00. The rally didn’t try resuming until the position-squaring window, which was too late to gain traction. Its surge up to 2156.00 touched some “higher prior lows” and reacted back down entirely to 2150.00 into the close.
Overnight action’s new info…
The late surge’s retracement extended down after the close. Its double-digit decline has been relentless, most recently touching 2135.50. Its reaction up had found resistance at 2139.00, which just blipped-up to touch 2141.50.
If, then…
Extending the overnight slide could greet Tuesday’s open gapping down under Monday afternoon’s 2130.50 low. If the gap down were maintained, the setup would form a “session-long decline.” Gaps down are difficult to maintain when begun by relentless overnight trending, which is vulnerable to counter-trend sponsorship. Otherwise, renewed bias-down still would point down, and still could produce a probe under yesterday’s 2110.50 post-open low, if not also under the 2100.25 overnight low. Having trended down so deeply overnight, today’s only path higher may be to avoid triggering bias-down, at all.
First Trade…
[Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 under 2139.00 would be unlikely to recover the 2141.00 bias-down target through 10:15 and to renew the bias-down signal next targeting 2134.00. Exiting the open under 2144.25 would be likely to trigger the 2147.50 bias-down signal. Exiting the open above 2149.00 would be unlikely to trigger bias-down.
Morning Bias
| TUE morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2166.50 | 2158.50 |
| …would target | 2173.25 | 2165.25 |
| Bias-down: under | 2153.50 | 2147.50 |
| …would target | 2149.00 | 2141.00 |
| Signal status: BIAS-DOWN, BIAS-DOWN TARGET EXCEEDED | FAQ | |
| INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 | ||
1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Post-market Wrap (recording & summary)
Monday’s close above 2134.00 undermines the trend change setup. Most other elements of the intraday rally were were not bullish.
The recovery stopped short of Friday’s 2157.50 opening print, which is both a natural attraction and resistance. Last week’s “higher prior lows” were tested, neutralizing their attraction above. Only the bias environment exit probed higher so no traction was gained for the effort, meaning that the day’s buyers were fulfilled. The overnight low at 2100.25 was the least bit pessimistic to qualify as testing “lower prior highs” which is potentially bearish from a contrarian perspective. And the overnight low was complex enough to qualify as a “new Globex trend extreme” requiring intraday retest.
The gap back to Thursday’s 2173.00 close doesn’t require being filled, but probably will be filled anyway if Tuesday’s open were to maintain a gap up. Gapping down under Monday afternoon’s 2130.50 low would form a “session-long decline” setup, but that’s not the only path down. Signals are too mixed to be overwhelming in either direction.
Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here.
Monitor overnight Globex trading in the chaRTroom here.