S&P
Afternoon Bias
| FRI afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2157.75 | 2149.75 |
| …would target | 2157.75 | 2155.00 |
| Bias-down: under | 2150.50 | 2142.75 |
| …would target | 2145.50 | 2137.50 |
| Signal status: BIAS-DOWN, BIAS-DOWN TARGET MET | FAQ | |
| INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 | ||
1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Post-open Review… Into the air pocket.
Overnight slide extending sharply lower.
Surely, you don’t need me to tell you that the 2167.25 bias-down signal triggered. And you probably know already that its 2162.25 target was exceeded in time to renew the bias-down signal. You also know its renewed bias-down target is 2155.00. But you might not have known that it, too, was exceeded through 10:15 to renew the bias-down signal. And its renewed target is 2149.75.
2149.75 was initially only overlapped by the 2149.00 low. A bounce to 2154.00 returned down to test 2149.75 It has now broken lower to 2145.25.
Simultaneously oversold RSIs at the 2149.00 low are now followed by oversold RSIs at 2145.25. Any bounce is doomed to failure. And a Friday’s bias tends to persist through the noon hour. A test of the 2140.00 area could develop quickly,
Otherwise, back above 2153.00 is needed to trigger a corrective bounce targeting at least 2156.50, if not also 2162.26. And 2153.00 is a long way above.
Pre-market Tour (recording & summary)
The overnight slide that had originated just before Europe’s opens has extended sharply lower pre-open. This morning’s 2167.25 bias-down signal and its 2162.25 target are far exceeded down to 2157.50. Rallying back above the target and preferably also above 2164.25 through the open would suggest this morning will recover. Otherwise, a renewed bias-down target of 2155.00 might seem optimistic compared to how much room below there is, not to mention a potential air pocket.
Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the pre-market Tour recording here.
The First Trade… Pivot point.
Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.
CHARTROOM LINK
(pre-open Market Tour begins at 8:55 ET)
Through the prior close…
The front-month rolled forward to Dec at Thursday’s open, and it got a lukewarm greeting. Gapping down almost 5 points from Wednesday’s 2179.00 cash session close remained in negative territory throughout the day. The morning probed under the prior session’s low, triggering bias-down. So much for the luke. The balance of the session warmed enough to restrain its pessimism and to avoid trending down. But there was no recovery, and the morning’s 2167.25 bias-down target was left outstanding.
Overnight action’s new info…
Ranging narrower than 2 points hovered just above Thursday’s ~2170.00 lows, until Europe’s opens approached. The range’s break extended down to test and retest 2167.25. Ranging back up to 2169.50 has resolved down to lower lows testing 2165.00..
If, then…
The overnight drop has neutralized the only “unfinished business” left outstanding from Thursday, at 2167.25. Thursday’s “ineffectual pessimism” just got pretty effectual. Potential for isolating the selling to overnight was limited since Wednesday morning’s Pivot Reversal setup had created a bearish context likely to persist into this morning. No traction was gained by Thursday’s drop, so trending Friday morning must begin by gapping under Thursday’s lows. And this being a Friday, the morning’s bias is likely to persist through the noon hour. Any bullish potential depends on rallying through the open.
First Trade…
[Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 above 2170.75 would suggest the 2167.25 bias-down signal will not trigger at 10:15. Exiting the open under 2164.25 would be likely to trigger bias-down.
Morning Bias
| FRI morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2185.75 | 2177.75 |
| …would target | 2191.25 | 2183.25 |
| Bias-down: under | 2175.25 | 2167.25 |
| …would target | 2170.25 | 2162.25 |
| Signal status: BIAS-DOWN, BIAS-DOWN TARGET EXCEEDED | FAQ | |
| INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 | ||
1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.