S&P
Pre-close View… Back to that corner.
Recovery attempt should fail here, if at all.
Exiting this morning’s bias environment under the open’s low completed a rejection of the interim probe above yesterday’s high. This is a bearish setup, likely to resolve down over the course of several sessions.
The burden of proof is now on buyers to recover the interim probe’s 2186.75 high through the close. Exiting the afternoon bias environment above the noon hour’s 2182.00 high did create potential for buyers to gain traction. Trending up through the 3:10-3:20 proxy window would confirm.
Otherwise, reversing back down under the noon hour’s 2177.50 low is likely this afternoon or tomorrow morning, extending much more substantially into Friday morning.
Daily Spot…
A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.
Eurodollar Sep Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Friday morning’s high will likely hold its retest by Tuesday’s surge, but probably not without first probing higher intraday to test 1.1300. Wednesday didn’t probe positive territory at all, but the setup remains intact.
Gold Dec Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Probing slightly higher after Tuesday’s close didn’t use all available room up to 1361.00, and closing Wednesday back in negative territory helps to maintain the bounce’s label as being only corrective. Back under 1343.00 would signal the trend reversing back down.
Silver Dec Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Already dipping into Wednesday’s open extended down to test its 19.85 pullback limit. Closing under 19.75 would signal the trend reversing back down to retest recent lows.
30-year Treasury Dec Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Gapping up Wednesday to the sloppy, choppy range’s 171-02 buy signal and probing above it was nevertheless reversed to fill the gap back down to Tuesday’s 170-21 close. Closing negative would make the setup bearish, reversing momentum down under 170-00. Otherwise, it may be a warning shot, clearing the path for a more productive surge that puts into play 176-10.
Crude Oil Oct Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Not rejecting the 44.20 bounce limit’s repeated tests had left the door open to retesting Sunday night’s 46.53 high, or to at least attacking it up to 45.80. Gapping up Wednesday did extend higher, and closing Thursday back under 44.20 would signal the decline has resumed. EIA is reporting this week on Thursday due to the holiday.
Natural Gas Oct Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
The four-day sequence greeting Wednesday’s session did not fulfill its likely recovery from probing negative territory intraday. The setup did play-out overnight — recovering from 2.69 up to 2.74 — but repeating it intraday fell to 2.66. Closing back above 2.71 would reverse momentum back up, and avoid yet another lower close. But Thursday’s EIA report is otherwise being greeted from a position of weakness.
Mid-day Update… Cornering.
Morning forms Pivot Reversal setup.
Yesterday’s last-minute surge had originated too late to be sponsored by strong hands. It wasn’t bullish. It may have been bearish, by making a gap down easier, and easier to absorb.
Absorbing a gap down is bearish?
Absorbing the gap down was reversed it to probe back above yesterday’s late high. That’s not bearish, unless rejected. And this morning’s recovery was rejected.
Exiting the bias environment under the open’s low at 2180.50 has trapped weak-handed buyers. This setup often launches a reversal. Entering the noon hour under the bias environment low would have been helpful, but that didn’t happen.
The noon hour did probe fresh lows down to this morning’s 2177.75 bias-down signal. Its reaction up to 2182.00 has avoided triggering bias-down again today. Back above 2182.00 could retest this morning’s high up to 2187.00, just as noise. Sellers are already entrenched.
Back under 2170.00 would signal the decline is already resuming. At this stage, that could be very bullish, instead.
Look ahead: Economic Calendar – for Thu Sep 8, 2016
A midday look ahead in preparation for economic reports and events scheduled for the next trading day.
Highlights: The holiday-shortened week delays the EIA Petroleum report by one day, and by one half-hour, but should still impact Crude Oil.
Jobless Claims
8:30 AM ET
Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index
9:45 AM ET
Quarterly Services Survey
10:00 AM ET
EIA Natural Gas Report
10:30 AM ET
*EIA Petroleum Status Report
11:00 AM ET
Consumer Credit
3:00 PM ET
Treasury STRIPS
3:00 PM ET
Fed Balance Sheet
4:30 PM ET
Money Supply
4:30 PM ET
Afternoon Bias
| WED afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2188.25 | 2187.00 |
| …would target | 2193.25 | 2192.25 |
| Bias-down: under | 2178.00 | 2177.00 |
| …would target | 2172.25 | 2171.50 |
| Signal status: NO-BIAS | FAQ | |
| INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 | ||
1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.