S&P
Post-market Wrap (recording & summary)
Friday ended with bounce, sizable by most standards, but somewhat tame compared to the intraday action preceding it. The three-week old gap back down to 2160.00 had been filled down to 2157.50, but no new sponsorship was able to extend that into a new downleg. Its reaction up attacked its 2170.75 target to within 2 ticks.
And where was the close? At 2168.00. Not above to indicate that sellers had lost traction, and not under it to put into play lower objectives. AT 2168.00.
Closing under 2177.00 has indicated the massive topping pattern is probably rolling over. Closing under 2168.00 would have indicated it is extending down. And under 2156.50 would tell us that extension is targeting a test of 2141.50. At a minimum. Gapping up Monday above 2188.00 would give the pattern another opportunity to probe fresh highs first.
Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here.
Pre-close View… Also: Early market Wrap!
I’m able to do a Market Wrap today, EARLY at 3:03 PM ET.
The morning’s plunge corrected to attack 2168.00 but didn’t reacted down deeply enough to trigger bias-down. So, the afternoon’s 2162.00 bias-down signal defined the bias environment’s lower-end.
Until the 2:30 bias environment lapsing came within view.
Spiking down at 2:15 probed fresh lows at 2157.50.The three-week old gap back to 2160.00 is now being neutralized. More than another point lower under 2156.50 would be likely to tumble into the close.
That’s not much likelier than the alternative, which is to range flat-to-sideways. Back above 2163.50 could even drift higher, with room for noise up to 2171.50.
Daily Spot…
A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.
Eurodollar Sep Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Gaping up Friday wasn’t likely to extend, but it did fill the gap outstanding above and neutralize its attraction. Yellen’s flurry of headlines triggered a steep reaction down to fresh lows for the week, another breakout attempt that would be confirmed by a second consecutive lower close on Monday.
Gold Aug Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Friday’s gap up tried to form an Island of Thursday’s range. But that was doomed since Thursday’s lower close had confirmed Wednesday’s breakout. The gap back up to Tuesday’s 1346.50 close was filled to within 50 cents and reversed down into negative territory under 1324.00. An eventual third lower close remains outstanding.
Silver Sep Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Friday’s gap up extended sharply higher and back down again amid Yellen’s headlines. Negative territory was never probed, let alone a negative close, although an eventual third lower close remains outstanding.
30-year Treasury Sep Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Wide swings reacted to Friday’s Yellen headlines, first probing under 171-22 to 171-06. Spiking up attacked 173-04 to within 1 tick before reversing down again to retest 171-06..
Crude Oil Oct Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Friday’s rally tested the last relative high above 48.35, which must be recovered to put into play fresh highs. Otherwise, so long as its resistance holds, the Descending Triangle now supported at 46.60 continues to develop, .
Natural Gas Sep Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Room for a pullback to 2.79 wasn’t fully utilized by Friday’s shallow gap down. Reversing up extended to fresh highs. Since Thursday had already fulfilled the minimum requirement created by Tuesday’s confirmed breakout, extending higher immediately anyway suggests the rally will extend, presumably to fill the gap outstanding above at 2.98.
Mid-day Update… What comes around can keep coming around.
REMINDER: I WILL LIKELY BE AWAY FROM THE SCREENS LATER THIS AFTERNOON.
So, excessive optimism got another clobbering on its stiff upper-lip.
The next higher objective at 2187.00 was attacked to within 1 tick, by errant ticks, while RSIs became overbought simultaneously — in reaction to news. That can undermine the requirement to be retested, but it’s moot at the moment.
Another set of headlines triggered a reaction down to and through the morning’s 2170.25 low to 2160.75. Oversold RSIs during the noon hour can undermine its retest requirement, too. After drifting up to attack 2168.00, another dip only attacked this afternoon’s 2162.00 bias-down signal.
Tenuous conditions triggered this morning’s rally, and that had kept us vigilant for the potential of collapsing to new lows. The specifics may have changed, but the conditions remain tenuous. Recovering back above yesterday’s ~2168.00 lows wouldn’t necessarily reflect accumulation, but still drift back up into the close.
There’s otherwise no bullish reason to revisit the noon hour’s low. Neutralizing Its oversold RSIs would only risk focusing new sellers on the Friday Factors’ illiquidity.
Look ahead: Economic Calendar – for Mon Aug 29, 2016
A midday look ahead in preparation for economic reports and events scheduled for the next trading day.
Highlights: The week’s first econ reports have no track record for influencing price action. More influential would be the undercurrent of reports from the weekend in Jackson Hole.
Personal Income and Outlays
8:30 AM ET
Dallas Fed Mfg Survey
10:30 AM ET
3-Month Bill Auction
11:30 AM ET
6-Month Bill Auction
11:30 AM ET