S&P
Mid-day Update… Adrift?
SPECIAL NOTE: I will be away from the screens on the afternoons of both Thursday and Friday, this week and next, Thank you for allowing me to be of personal assistance in a family matter.
The 2177.00 minimum objective to the first upleg was met at the morning bias environment’s high. Its reaction down to 2172.50 is bouncing, now attacking 2176.00. This morning’s 2178.75 objective remains outstanding, but a fresh low under 2172.50 would be difficult to recover.
Assuming no fresh low, then the balance of the session can extend up to 2178.75. Closing back under 2177.00 would help to confirm the trend has reversed down. Closing any higher could bounce further, but not necessarily to a new high.
Look ahead: Economic Calendar – for Fri Aug 26, 2016
A midday look ahead in preparation for economic reports and events scheduled for the next trading day.
Highlights: The world’s central bankers and private bankers Jackson Hole meeting begins. So, yah. Fed Chair Yellen speaks after several econ reports that are higher-profile than influential. Still, any reaction to the pre-open GDP is likely to be duplicated in reaction to post-open reports.
GDP
8:30 AM ET
International Trade in Goods
8:30 AM ET
Corporate Profits
8:30 AM ET
PMI Services Flash
9:45 AM ET
*Consumer Sentiment
10:00 AM ET
*Janet Yellen Speaks
11:00 AM ET
*Baker-Hughes Rig Count
1:00 PM ET
Daily Spot…
A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.
SPECIAL NOTE: Today’s issue is published early, and there is no post-market Wrap, due to travel. Thank you!
Eurodollar Sep Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Gapping up Thursday back above the 1.1295 sell signal that had triggered Wednesday was recaptured by noon. Maintaining its break through the close would keep alive the reversal, and closing under Wednesday’s low would confirm.
Gold Aug Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Gapping down Thursday under all prior lows created “unfinished business below” at its open that would prevent any interim recovery from gaining traction until that opening gap is retested from above. Meanwhile, a second consecutive lower close Thursday would confirm Wednesday’s break out requiring an eventual third lower close. And the current leg is likely targeting 1296.00-1297.00.
Silver Sep Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Thursday morning had not extended lower so much as briefly pierced under Wednesday’s lows. Closing lower would confirm Wednesday’s breakout. Not rejecting the break would keep alive this leg’s 18.35 target.
30-year Treasury Sep Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Probing lower to 171-10 Thursday morning reacted back up above 171-22, which must maintain its break to put into play fresh lows under 171-00. A recovery must begin by closing above 172-16, and then also confirmed above 173-04.
Crude Oil Oct Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Thursday morning showed no greater interest in breaking under Tuesday’s 46.60 low than did Wednesday. It also showed no greater interest in bouncing off of it. Any lower close would be likely to extend down, still needing confirmation from a second consecutive lower close.
Natural Gas Sep Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Thursday’s EIA report was greeted from a position of strength. Its knee-jerk reaction up was maintained into the noon hour. Closing in positive territory would fulfill the minimum required third higher close created by Tuesday’s confirmed breakout.
Afternoon Bias
| THU afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2181.00 | 2179.00 |
| …would target | 2187.00 | 2185.00 |
| Bias-down: under | 2172.75 | 2170.75 |
| …would target | 2167.25 | 2165.25 |
| Signal status: NO BIAS | FAQ | |
| INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 | ||
1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Post-open Review… Sellers balk.
SPECIAL NOTE: I will be away from the screens on the afternoons of both Thursday and Friday, this week and next, Thank you for allowing me to be of personal assistance in a family matter.
Pre-open attacks on yesterday’s 2168.75 low had stopped optimistically short of touching it, suggesting it would at least be probed. Even that would not assure sustaining a break lower. So, the actual inflection point was calculated to be 1 point lower at 2167.75.
2167.75 was touched, but it did not break. Its touch inflected back up sharply to test the 2171.50 bias-down signal as resistance. It was recovered through 10:15 to trigger no-bias.
Actually, a very late blip-down touched 2171.50 within the 3-minute window around 10:15. The grace period held it, but it hasn’t yet been rewarded. Back under 2170.75 would undermine the no-bias signal. Otherwise, an offsetting test of the 2168.75 bias-up signal is in-play.