S&P
Daily Spot…
A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.
Eurodollar Sep Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Gapping down Wednesday under the 1.1295 sell signal now needs a second consecutive lower close on Thursday under 1.1255 to confirm the corrective bounce has ended. Closing under 1.1170 would signal new lows in-play.
Gold Aug Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Wednesday’s gap down to recent lows plunged sharply lower to fulfill the 1329.00-1332.00 target. Closing back above 1336.50 would signal the break was false, likely at least to fill the gap back up to Tuesday’s 1345.00 close. Closing under 1329.00 would instead target 1296.00-1297.00.
Silver Sep Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Tuesday’s shallow bounce was reversed early Tuesday to test the 18.75-18.85 target area’s lower-end. Its break puts into play 18.35, which was tested Wednesday down to 18.55.
30-year Treasury Sep Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Wednesday morning’s dip attacked the 171-22 sell signal to within 6 ticks before bouncing back above the 172-16 buy signal. Closing above it would be credible for launching a recovery.
Crude Oil Oct Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Tuesday’s bounce up to 48.00 resistance reacted Wednesday by gapping back down to 47.45 and extending to Tuesday morning’s 46.60 low. Closing any lower would reinstate the reversal..
Natural Gas Sep Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Tuesday’s break above 2.70 extended higher Wednesday’s to test 2.82. The second consecutive higher close confirms the breakout, now requiring at least an eventual third higher close.
Mid-day Update… Fork in the road.
REMINDER: I will be away from the screens on the afternoons of both Thursday and Friday, this week and next, Thank you for allowing me to be of personal assistance in a family matter.
This morning’s 2177.00 bias-down target became “unfinished business below” that will require being tested intraday. Not necessarily today. Reacting up 5 points from 2178.25 through the noon hour has dipped back down to 2180.50.
This being a no-bias environment, its 2177.00-2185.75 bias signals should try to contain trending if tested. Meanwhile, either signal can be tested, which would be triggered back under 2180.50 or back above 2182.25.
Trending after the bias environment lapses should either reject this morning’s drop, or else extend it. Bouncing into the close wouldn’t necessarily prevent another drop tomorrow. But dropping into the close would be likely to extend.
Look ahead: Economic Calendar – for Thu Aug 25, 2016
A midday look ahead in preparation for economic reports and events scheduled for the next trading day.
Highlights: Thursday’s pre-open Durable Goods report is both high-profile and reliably influential to price action. More so, any reaction to it is likely to be duplicated by any reaction to the morning’s post-open reports.
*Durable Goods Orders
8:30 AM ET
Jobless Claims
8:30 AM ET
Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index
9:45 AM ET
EIA Natural Gas Report
10:30 AM ET
Kansas City Fed Manufacturing Index
11:00 AM ET
7-Yr Note Auction
1:00 PM ET
Fed Balance Sheet
4:30 PM ET
Money Supply
4:30 PM ET
Afternoon Bias
| WED afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2187.75 | 2185.75 |
| …would target | 2193.00 | 2191.00 |
| Bias-down: under | 2179.00 | 2177.00 |
| …would target | 2172.75 | 2170.75 |
| Signal status: NO-BIAS | FAQ | |
| INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 | ||
1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Post-open Review… Take two.
Overnight low probed.
The open was greeted by already probing back under yesterday’s late 2185.00 low. Its overnight probe would not be isolated, which would have been bullish. Rather, its retracement would be likely, which could be bearish.
And it has been retraced, piercing its low down to 2180.50. Isolating its retest to the open could have ended the decline from yesterday’s opening surge. Outlasting the open has instead triggered bias-down under 2182.75. Its 2177.00 bias-down target is in-play. Fresh lows just touched 2178.25.
Extending under 2177.00 through a relevant timing window (e.g. entering the noon hour any lower) would start to suggest the topping pattern we’ve been tracking is unfolding. Until then, it’s still possible for the drop from yesterday’s open to be the correction along the way to new highs.