S&P
Mid-day Update… And a special note.
SPECIAL NOTE: I will be away from the screens on the afternoons of both Thursday and Friday, this week and next, Thank you for allowing me to be of personal assistance in a family matter.
Despite the open having neutralized all “unfinished business above” up to 2181.50, the balance of the morning barely reacted down to 2187.50. Slow and steady drifting through the noon hour extended to attack this morning’s 2185.00 bias-down signal as support.
Probing fresh highs could be done without turning aggressive, and simply drifting slowly and steadily back up. The next higher attractions at 2195.50 and 2202.50 would be in-play above 2190.25.
Meanwhile, support down to 2184.00-2185.00 isn’t so much an inflection point, as it is a likely spot for selling to accelerate. A credible drop will need to be aggressive if it is valid.
Look ahead: Economic Calendar – for Wed Aug 24, 2016
A midday look ahead in preparation for economic reports and events scheduled for the next trading day.
Highlights: The density of Housing sector reports comes to a crescendo with Wednesday’s three separate looks at different aspects of the industry. But their price influence is limited to contradictions among the data, or to confirming any outliers.
MBA Mortgage Applications
7:00 AM ET
FHFA House Price Index
9:00 AM ET
PMI Manufacturing Index Flash
9:45 AM ET
Existing Home Sales
10:00 AM ET
EIA Petroleum Status Report
10:30 AM ET
2-Yr FRN Note Auction
11:30 AM ET
5-Yr Note Auction
1:00 PM ET
Afternoon Bias
| TUE afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2191.75 | 2189.50 |
| …would target | 2196.50 | 2194.50 |
| Bias-down: under | 2185.50 | 2183.50 |
| …would target | 2179.25 | 2177.00 |
| Signal status: NO-BIAS | FAQ | |
| INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 | ||
1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Post-open Review… Made it. Now, break it?
New highs fulfilled. Not yet extended.
The open gapped up into last Monday’s range above its 2187.00 cash session close, and extended higher to touch the 2190.00 bias-up target. A lot of time was spent probing higher to 2191.50, above last Monday’s high as was required.
Printing above 2190.00 at 10:15 officially renewed the bias-up signal, next targeting 2194.50. Technically, the renewed signal is not optimal, since 2190.00 had been overlapped for so long, while RSIs deteriorated. But the burden of proof is on sellers.
Maintaining the gap up above all prior highs often creates an anchor that prevents launching a durable reversal. Today’s anchor is less reliable since it formed within a prior session’s range. Still, the burden of proof is on sellers, and reversing down under 2188.75 could recover aggressively from 2185.00-2186.00 this morning.
Pre-market Tour (recording & summary)
The earlier blip-up to 2188.00 had reacted down almost 3 points. But recovering back up to it is now spiking up through it. Noise around the 2190.00 bias-up target comes in at 2189.50, and reacting down from it would be vulnerable to avoiding the bias-up signal altogether — which would be very bearish near-term. Otherwise, maintaining the gap up would allow probing higher this morning.
Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the pre-market Tour recording here.