S&P
The First Trade… The wind-up.
Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.
CHARTROOM LINK
(pre-open Market Tour begins at 8:55 ET)
Through the prior close…
Friday morning’s gap down tried extending, more in terms of points than in time. The open contained the 2172.50 bottom, 12 points off of Thursday’s highs. The morning’s bounce to 2181.50 had reacted down to enter Friday afternoon’s bias environment at 2176.50. Trending up to fresh session highs at 2183.00 was entirely consistent with a bullish WedEX. No unfinished business was left outstanding.
Overnight action’s new info…
Europe’s opens once again provided a paradigm shift in overnight price action. Sunday night’s flat open had soon begun sliding, eventually retracing back down to Friday afternoon’s bias environment entry at 2176.50. Blipping-down 1 point deeper at Europe’s opens only stretched the rubber band to snap back up. Thursday’s highs were retested up to 2184.50. That paradigm shift isn’t yet necessarily tectonic — its reaction back down into negative territory is testing 2178.00
If, then…
This weekend’s Saturday Review described the potential for retesting last week’s 2188.50-2190.50 highs, before a durable downleg could begin. Last night’s choppy overnight range requires opinions to be pressed, and defended. Recovering the overnight dip and reversing to probe Friday’s highs suggests buyers are percolating. Friday’s bullish WedEX performance enhances this morning’s opportunity to push price higher, regardless of the afternoon’s resolution. Gapping down under Friday afternoon’s 2175.75 low may be the only way to start trending down this morning.
First Trade…
[Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 above 2180.50 would be unlikely to trigger the 2176.00 bias-down signal at 10:15. Exiting the open under 2174.25 would be likely to trigger bias-down.
Sunday night’s Globex chaRTroom link
Globex has opened… flat. That’s not surprising since no influential geopolitical events developed during the weekend. The proximity to last Monday’s high, and the bullish WedEX, may be more influential than anything else. I’ll annotate any patterns that appear and post comments as needed.
Morning Bias
| MON morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2187.50 | 2185.00 |
| …would target | 2192.25 | 2190.00 |
| Bias-down: under | 2178.25 | 2176.00 |
| …would target | 2174.25 | 2171.75 |
| Signal status: LATE NO-BIAS, TESTED BIAS-DOWN SIGNAL | FAQ | |
| INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 | ||
1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Post-market Wrap (recording & summary)
Entering the afternoon’s bias environment at 2176.50 and trending up to fresh session highs at 2183.00 is entirely consistent with a bullish WedEX. While there’s no assurance Monday’s open won’t gap down, post-open action is now substantially more likely to trend up, too, and more aggressively than Friday afternoon.
Apart from that, no unfinished business was left outstanding. The open’s gap wasn’t under prior lows, requiring a retest. And the gap back up to Thursday’s close wasn’t filled entirely, but the lower-end of its structure was tested. The prior week’s range was broken only temporarily on Monday. Calm before the storm?
Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here.
Join us at 9:30 am ET for Saturday Review in the chaRTroom here.
Pre-close View… Upping antes.
WedEX bullishness playing out.
WedEX’s bullish influence began upon entering the bias environment at 1:20-1:30. Rallying from that window’s ~2176.50 low hasn’t looked back. The final hour’s entry was probing the 2181.25 resistance that had held tests this morning and during the noon hour.
That’s now breaking higher to 2183.00, still more than 1 point under yesterday’s cash session close, and natural resistance. Bullish WedEX doesn’t assure extending through it.
Extending higher today would make bullish WedEX likely also to influence Monday morning. But it wouldn’t prevent gapping down, let alone require gapping up, so hold-long might not be compelling.