S&P
The First Trade & Pre-open Tour Recording… Giving back.
Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.
DAILY SCHEDULE
First, watch the pre-open Tour recording HERE <<==
Then, meet in the chaRTroom here by 9:15 ET for updates and Q&A
Through the prior close…
Thursday’s last-minute reaction down from the 2641.50 on INTC’s disappointment greeted Globex at 2634.00. The overnight rally greeted Friday’s open with a late surge to 2662.00 which held a post-open dip to 2656.00 support. The rally resumed through 2666.00 and filled the gap back to last Friday’s ~2671.00 close. Its natural resistance held, and held the afternoon’s retest up to 2672.50. That was also the bias-up target, rejected back under the bias-up signal to indicate that buyers were done as the afternoon trended back down to 2657.50. The cash session closed back at the 2662.00 pre-open high, extending through the close back up to 2666.00.
Overnight action’s new info…
Sunday night’s open gapped down just enough to erase the several-point gain above Friday’s cash session close. The balance of the night has trended down gradually, but relentlessly. Friday’s 2650.00 pre-open low was probed by more than 2 points, but its reaction is now tying to recover above 2653.00.
If, then… (notes to accompany the Tour recording)
Friday afternoon gained no traction for the morning’s rally effort. Closing between 2656.00–2666.00 avoided both putting back into play the bear market rally’s next higher objective at 2701.00, or suggesting that buyers were done. Monday’s open can do either by proxy, or at least lay the groundwork, with either setup still requiring a second consecutive confirming close. Opening under 2653.00-2656.00 could start to reverse the trend down, but would otherwise be irrelevant if not extended down intraday. And Friday’s session, which was gapped into, would resolve most bearishly by not filling the open’s gap down under it — or by not delaying a pre-open recovery. Not yet behaving bearishly through the open would suggest that overnight relentless bearish sponsorship was unable to attract intraday reinforcements.
First Trade…
[Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 under 2653.50 would be likely to trigger the 2658.25 bias-down signal at 10:15. Exiting the open under 2645.00 would be likely also to exceed the 2649.75 bias-down target at 10:15 to renew the bias-down signal. Exiting the open above 2622.00 would be unlikely to trigger the 2658.25 bias-down signal at 10:15.
Morning Bias
| MON morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2671.00 | 2670.75 |
| …would target | 2680.00 | 2679.75 |
| Bias-down: under | 2658.75 | 2658.25 |
| …would target | 2650.25 | 2649.75 |
| Signal status: BIAS-DOWN, BIAS-DOWN TARGET EXCEEDED | . | |
| BIAS VIDEOS… INTRO // EXAMPLE | ||
1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Market Wrap (recording & summary)
The overnight rally was already testing 2656.00 before a late surge to 2662.00 greeted Friday’s open. That allowed a post-open dip to attack 2656.00 as support. It held, and the rally soon resumed. Extending up through 2666.00. filled the gap back to last Friday’s ~2671.00 close. Natural resistance.
The afternoon’s 2672.50 bias-up target was touched at the noon hour’s high. Its reaction attacked 2660.00 at the noon hour’s low. Bouncing only to retest 2666.00 was short of triggering bias-up, which tends to end upside momentum on Friday. Another dip to 2660.00 almost defined the balance of the afternoon until a late break lower.
The afternoon gained no traction for the morning’s rally effort — the bias environment exit and final hour’s entry were both within the noon hour’s range. Closing above 2666.00 would have put back into play the bear market rally’s next higher objective at 2701.00. Closing under 2656.00 would give sellers traction, but Monday’s open can also do that by proxy.
Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here.
PLEASE JOIN US AT 9:30 ET FOR THE WEEKLY SATURDAY REVIEW
Daily Spot…
A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.
Eurodollar Mar Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Rallying overnight gapped up Friday t 1.1390 and immediately retraced 61.8% of Thursday’s collapse to begin suggesting that was only an ECB related anomaly. Extending higher through Wednesday’s attack on 1.1450 all but confirms momentum has reversed up.
Gold Feb Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Consolidating between 1277.50-1283.00 finally resolved Friday morning, surging to probe prior highs at 1300.00, and presumably reinstating upside momentum next targeting 1319.50 so long as 1292.00 now holds as support.
Silver Mar Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
The consolidation under 15.40 finally resolved up Friday morning, at least producing its most aggressive attempt, by returning into the previous channel up to 15.70. Further recovery potential requires holding 15.60 as support.
30-year Treasury Mar Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Thursday’s gap up had firmed slightly through the close, but was still likely to back-and-fill before resuming the rally. An overnight dip gapped down to recent “lower prior highs” at 145-08 and tested 144-30 intraday. Any initial strength Monday would be credible for extending higher, but back under 144-24 would launch a new downleg.
Crude Oil Mar Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Overnight strength to 54.20 essentially filled the gap back last Friday’s false breakout before reversing to greet Friday’s open unchanged. Intraday action trended back up to attack the overnight high. Any initial strength Monday would be likely to extend higher intraday.
Natural Gas Feb Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Thursday’s rally from its maximum corrective pullback limit was initially extended higher overnight to test 3.20. Opening Friday back under Thursday’s highs dipped to 3.05 support before rallying to attack 3.20 into the weekend, all in-line with forming a bottom.
Mid-day Update… Holding up.
Resistance holds, but not rejected.
Opening above 2656.00 and extending up to 2666.00 didn’t satisfy buyers. This morning’s rally extended to fill the gap back up to last Friday’s ~2671.00 close. Its reaction down to 2663.00 was recovered to pierce the morning’s high up to 2672.50 during the noon hour.
That was also this afternoon’s bias-up target. And it reacted down through the 2669.75 bias-up signal to attack 2660.00. During the morning bias, this set would have put into play offsetting tests of BOTH bias-down parameters. Not necessarily during the afternoon.
The potential just diminished for simply gravitating higher through the close. That requires exiting the bias environment at fresh session highs, which is difficult during a no-bias environment. That said, greeting the bias environment exit at its 2669.75 bias-up signal and immediately breaking higher would be credible. Otherwise, flat-to-lower through the afternoon is likelier.