S&P
Post-open Review… Re-stretching the rubber band.
Overnight dip recovered.
2150.50-2151.25 defined the open. And the open defined the peak of the bounce off the 2145.25 overnight low. Despite immediately reversing back down toward the overnight low, only 2147.00 support was touched, 1 tick above this morning’s 2146.75 bias-down signal.
2147.00-2148.00 is relevant support. It was the room for noise under 2153.50‘s retest. That support is now chipped away in case it’s retested today.
Meanwhile, au contraire.
2147.00‘s reaction recovered to fresh post-open highs at 2153.00. That eked higher to attack the 2155.50 bias-up signal, which was touched only now. Bias-up didn’t trigger, and can’t. But no-bias trending can still probe it up to 2158.00 while still being likely to reverse down.
Back under 2151.25 would signal that reversal down underway already. Other than potential support at 2149.25, any lower should extend down aggressively to retest yesterday’s 2141.25 low
Pre-market Tour (recording & summary)
The overnight dip hasn’t recovered, but its bounce from 2145.25 improved a little to touch 2151.00. A retest of yesterday’s 2141.50 low remains likely, and likely to be probed by several points. Probing above last night’s highs to test or attack the 2155.50 bias-up signal is possible first.
Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the pre-market Tour recording here.
The First Trade… Proving solid ground,
Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.
CHARTROOM LINK
(pre-open Market Tour begins at 8:55 ET)
Through the prior close…
Tuesday’s close had recovered from its 2141.50 low back up to Thursday’s 2153.50 low. That was still well under Monday’s 2165.00 close. The requirement to test Thursday’s low was neutralized, and now oversold RSIs at 2141.50 require a retest..
Overnight action’s new info…
Trending down shallowly overnight has nevertheless been relentless. Selling accelerated briefly as Europe’s opens triggered a 6-point slide to 2145.25. That has since firmed to attack 2150.00.
If, then…
Closing at Thursday’s 2153.50 low Tuesday suggests the current downleg is only temporary. Closing above Thursday’s low could have suggested the downleg is done. Instead, a retest of Tuesday’s 2141.50 low is likely, especially if Wednesday’s open doesn’t gap up. Entering the noon hour under Tuesday’s low would suggest a much deeper downleg underway.
First Trade…
[Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 under 2142.50 would be likely to trigger the 2146.75 bias-down signal at 10:15. Exiting the open above 2150.50 would be unlikely to trigger bias-down.
Morning Bias
| WED morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2161.50 | 2155.50 |
| …would target | 2166.75 | 2160.75 |
| Bias-down: under | 2156.75 | 2146.75 |
| …would target | 2147.00 | 2141.00 |
| Signal status: NO-BIAS | FAQ | |
| INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 | ||
1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Post-market Wrap (recording & summary)
Tuesday’s close was testing Thursday’s 2153.50 low. Remember Thursday’s low? Its test became required after Friday’s probe above Thursday’s highs, despite Thursday’s rally not having gained traction. Retracing Thursday’s rally was the consequence to probing above it prematurely, and now that consequence is neutralized.
Anyway, Thursday’s low has held its test through the close. Its test wasn’t rejected, which would have required closing back above another relevant level. But a lot of extra selling pressure was expended down to 2141.50, and absorbed.
Retesting 2141.50 through Wednesday morning can’t be dismissed, especially with oversold RSIs there requiring it eventually — and especially if not already rallying pre-open. But maintaining a gap up could instead become focused on retesting Sunday night’s 2177.75 high before resuming a much larger decline.
Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here.
Monitor overnight Globex trading in the chaRTroom here.