S&P
Post-open Review… Sentiment shifty.
Monday morning’s sentiment shift setup still playing-out.
SPECIAL NOTE: MY DEVELOPER IS TESTING INDIVIDUAL USER ACCOUNTS TO RESOLVE THE CHARTROOM LOGIN ISSUE. THIS MIGHT REQUIRE THAT YOU RE-SET YOUR PASSWORD, AGAIN… ONE WAY, OR ANOTHER, THIS ISSUE WILL BE RESOLVED BY TODAY’S CLOSE. THANK YOU FOR BEING PATIENT!
A Symmetrical Triangle had formed pre-open. The open was greeted at its 2162.00 upper-end. A 2-point blip-down was reversed immediately into a 2-point blip-up to 2164.00. That last blip was the Triangle’s 61.8% extension. And it held.
Even faster than the blip-up, fresh lows were being probed down to 2158.00 A bigger break lower has extended down to 2150.00.
The 2154.25 bias-down target had been probed, but was still being overlapped at 10:15 to avoid renewing the bias-down signal. That doesn’t change this being a bias-down environment. And the next lower objective would be 2147.00-2148.00.
Oversold RSIs at 2150.00 require its retest. They are higher oversolds, so an interim bounce retesting the 2154.25 bias-down target is possible. This morning’s trend meanwhile remains down.
Yesterday’s open had isolated the overnight probe of fresh highs, signaling a sentiment shift. “Unfinished business above” was left outstanding at the 2177.75 overnight high. Resolving downside attractions so quickly does make it difficult to attract substantial sponsorship. I’m not convinced this downturn is durable.
Pre-market Tour (recording & summary)
The overnight drop’s consolidation continues ranging around yesterday’s 2160.00 lows, at this morning’s 2160.75 bias-down signal. A Symmetrical Triangle has formed, so a breakout would be credible for extending, with potential to retest the Triangle before resuming the breakout. And that retest would have some potential to reverse back into and through the Triangle, if done during the opening 15 minutes of volatility.
Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the pre-market Tour recording here.
The First Trade… Picking up where yesterday left off.
Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.
CHARTROOM LINK
(pre-open Market Tour begins at 8:55 ET)
Through the prior close…
Sunday night’s “new Globex trend extreme” at the 2177.75 overnight high was left outstanding Monday, and its eventual retest is required. But opening back in Friday’s range and staying thee isolated the overnight highs, so that intraday sentiment could take an opposite tack. The noon hour’s 2160.00 area lows held through the afternoon, as did 2166.00 resistance. No other “unfinished business” was created and no traction was gained.
Overnight action’s new info…
Monday’s closing attack on 2166.00 resistance was soon broken by a rally to 2171.00. Its reaction drifted back down to 2166.00 ahead of Europe’s opens, which triggered a steep drop back down through Monday’s lows to 2157.50. Now a bounce ranging a couple points back above Monday’s lows.
If, then…
The next lower objective would be to retest Thursday’s 2153.50 low, as a consequence to Friday morning’s trending above Thursday’s highs without traction. Despite the overnight slide, not already trending down at Tuesday’s close would make the 2177.75 high’s retest likelier, first. Gapping down under Monday’s 2160.00 lows would likely trend down through the morning. Regardless, nothing can change Monday’s sentiment peak setup, and intraday reaction’s confirmation. The burden of proof is back on buyers.
First Trade…
[Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 above 2166.00 would be unlikely to trigger the 2160.75 bias-down signal at 10:15. Exiting the open under 2158.00 would be likely to trigger bias-down.
Morning Bias
| TUE morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2176.25 | 2170.50 |
| …would target | 2181.25 | 2175.50 |
| Bias-down: under | 2166.50 | 2160.75 |
| …would target | 2160.00 | 2154.25 |
| Signal status: BIAS-DOWN, BIAS-DOWN TARGET MET | FAQ | |
| INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 | ||
1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Post-market Wrap (recording & summary)
A “new Globex trend extreme” at the 2177.75 overnight high was left outstanding Monday. It is almost historically mandated to be retested intraday before a durable downleg can begin. Meanwhile, a sizable downleg is possible.
Despite Monday afternoon’s flat-to-higher narrow ranging, the next lower objective would be to retest Thursday’s 2153.50 low. By the same token, because of Monday afternoon’s flat-to-higher narrow ranging, not already trending down into Tuesday’s close would make the 2177.75 retest likelier, first.
But nothing changes whether greeting the week with extreme sentiment can easily be a sentiment peak. And nothing changes that its intraday reaction down wasn’t rejected. The burden of proof is back on buyers.
Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here.
Monitor overnight Globex trading in the chaRTroom here. Contact me immediately if you encounter any difficulty.