S&P
Look ahead: Economic Calendar – for Tue Jul 19, 2016
A midday look ahead in preparation for economic reports and events scheduled for the next trading day.
Highlights: Tuesday’s housing sector data tends to be reported widely, but has no recent track record for influencing price action.
Housing Starts
8:30 AM ET
Redbook
8:55 AM ET
4-Week Bill Auction
11:30 AM ET
52-Week Bill Auction
11:30 AM ET
Afternoon Bias
| MON afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2170.75 | 2164.50 |
| …would target | 2176.25 | 2170.25 |
| Bias-down: under | 2161.25 | 2155.25 |
| …would target | 2154.75 | 2148.50 |
| Signal status: NO-BIAS | FAQ | |
| INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 | ||
1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Post-open Review… Better late than never.
Post-open dip recovers well into positive territory.
The opening bar touched Friday afternoon’s 2157.25 high. Reversing down tested the preliminary 2153.00 indication. Its break through 9:45 would have made the 2158.00 bias-up signal unlikely to trigger.
It held.
That was the opening 15 minutes of volatility. The balance of the opening hour has trended up relentlessly to 2160.00. Bias-up triggered late, but its 2163.75 bias-up target is nonetheless in-play. And the bullish WedEX remains intact.
A spike up to 2161.50 tested 2160.00, which was the preliminary upside indicator. Although not touched by 9:45 like 2153.00 below, it’s still resistance. Preferably, its reaction down will hold 2158.75 before resuming the rally.
Pre-market Tour (recording & summary)
The 2158.00 bias-up signal has been probed twice overnight, once to within 2-3 ticks of the 2163.75 bias-up target. But the open is being greeted within 2-3 ticks of Friday’s 2154.25 cash session close. Flat.
Inverting the signal Monday isn’t possible after it has been influential Friday. But too much delay in trending up post-open would question whether the signal withstood Friday’s post-close anomaly.
Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the pre-market Tour recording here.
The First Trade… Take me back to Constantinople.
Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.
CHARTROOM LINK
(pre-open Market Tour begins at 8:55 ET)
Through the prior close…
Friday’s gap up to 2164.00 originated too late to be credible, warning early that the 2161.50 bias-up signal wouldn’t trigger. Its 2152.00 objective was tested down to 2149.00. The bullish WedEX accompanied an afternoon recovery to 2157.00 before news of Turkey’s coup pushed price down into the close. Post-close action gapped down and extended sharply lower to 2143.00, 11 points under the cash session close.
Overnight action’s new info…
The coup didn’t succeed, if it was even a coup. Sunday night’s 2154.50 open immediately retraced everything under Friday’s cash session close. Immediately extending higher attacked 2161.00 before settling back down to 2155.00. Surging again through Europe’s opens tested 2163.00. That has also settled back down to 2155.00.
If, then…
I had published Monday’s bias parameters before Friday’s post-close plunge. The 2143.00 bias-down target defined the plunge’s low, and the 2163.75 bias-up target defined last night’s high. Since those levels are calculated from price action through Friday’s close, that helps to confirm expiration remains influential. Post-open action remains likely to fulfill the bullish WedEX signal.
First Trade…
[Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 above 2161.00 would be likely to trigger the 2158.00 bias-up signal at 10:15. Exiting the open under 2153.00 would be unlikely to trigger bias-up.