S&P
Pre-close View… So, what’s new?
Unsurprising FOMC statement enables range to persist.
Today’s likeliest scenario has been tracked. So far.
Optimistic firming or rallying preceded the FOMC news. Volatility evaporated ahead of it. The news triggered an initially favorable knee-jerk reaction up. Fully discounting the news reacted back down to a fresh relative low.
Still awaiting the template’s next stage — trending back down well into yesterday’s range. Potentially through it.
This last stage has been delayed for awhile. Back under 2070.50 would target at least 2063.50. But back above 2073.75-2075.25 would target a fresh session high attacking 2080.75.
Daily Spot…
A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.
Eurodollar Sep Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Gapping up Wednesday was appropriate for helping to confirm that Tuesday’s gap down had only neutralized the attraction below without breaking lower. The FOMC reaction extended higher and filled the gap back up to Tuesday’s close. Retesting last week’s 1.1400 high remains in-play.
Gold Aug Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Tuesday didn’t reject Monday’s surge, so with or without a pullback that would be likely to recover, the 1312.00 target above remains intact. Spiking up post-close in reaction to FOMC already tested 1300.00.
Silver Jul Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Firming to a fresh relative high Wednesday morning continued the attack on the outstanding target above at 17.60. But it was fulfill in reaction to the afternoon’s FOMC news.
30-year Treasury Sep Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Overnight weakness tested the 168-20 pullback limit to enable Wednesday morning’s post-open rally. Recovering to within 3 ticks of Tuesday’s 167-27 high suggests the rally is resuming.
Crude Oil Jul Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Extending down even deeper after Tuesday’s API report, and then reacting up on Wednesday’s EIA, has not undermined the distributive pattern unfolding that should soon now be entering its capitulative stage.
Natural Gas Jul Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Still not falling any deeper than Tuesday’s pre-open dip is starting to suggest that the 2.70-2.75 target will be met first. Meeting it without first correcting would make the target’s test likely to react down.
Look ahead: Economic Calendar – for Thu Jun 16, 2016
A midday look ahead in preparation for economic reports and events scheduled for the next trading day.
Highlights: Thursday’s Philly Fed survey is the only regional survey with a reliable track record for influencing price action.
*Consumer Price Index
8:30 AM ET
Jobless Claims
8:30 AM ET
*Philadelphia Fed Survey
8:30 AM ET
Current Account
8:30 AM ET
Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index
9:45 AM ET
Housing Market Index
10:00 AM ET
EIA Natural Gas Report
10:30 AM ET
Fed Balance Sheet
4:30 PM ET
Money Supply
4:30 PM ET
Afternoon Bias
| WED afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2084.25 | 2075.25 |
| …would target | 2089.75 | 2080.75 |
| Bias-down: under | 2073.50 | 2064.50 |
| …would target | 2068.00 | 2059.00 |
| Signal status: NO-BIAS | FAQ | |
| INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 | ||
1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Post-open Review… Spriiing, spriiing, sprii-?
Optimism persists ahead of the afternoon FOMC events.
The pre-open pullback to 2067.50 had recovered to greet the open piercing back above the 2069.75 bias-up signal. Post-open action trended up to within 2-3 ticks of the 2076.00 bias-up target.
But no higher.
This is a bias-up environment. Although its target hasn’t been met, it has been met closely enough to prevent it from becoming “unfinished business above” if not met this morning. Still, being a bias-up environment, extending higher is possible despite not renewing the signal.
Not likely.
Strong-handed buyers will be difficult to attract with the afternoon’s FOMC news looming. Meanwhile, the bias-up environment could still dip back down to attack or test its 2069.75 bias-up signal as support.