S&P
The First Trade… Locked, and loaded.
Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.
CHARTROOM LINK
(pre-open Market Tour begins at 8:55 ET)
Through the prior close…
Plunging in reaction to Friday’s pre-open payrolls number had extended down through the open. Support was finally found within 1 tick of the 2082.50 renewed bias-down target. Its reaction up into the final hour tested 2101.00, which was 2-3 points short of regaining positive territory. But the rally gained traction by exiting the bias environment above the noon hour’s high, and then entering the final hour higher.
Overnight action’s new info…
Ranging flat-to-lower greeted Europe’s opens at 2095.00. That triggered a surge through Friday’s recovery high, still several ticks short of Thursday’s close
If, then…
Gapping up isn’t necessary to resume the rally without delay this morning, or to rally from a weaker open. But Friday’s payrolls shock seems to have been a detour, instead of its bounce only refueling sellers. And this weekend’s pro-Brexit gains seem irrelevant, after having been responsible for reversing last week’s initial probe of fresh highs. Without reversing another fresh high, or extending any early weakness, the coast seems clear for a broad rally effort targeting 2116.00-2119.00 .
First Trade…
[Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 above 2105.50 would be likely to trigger the 2103.00 bias-up signal at 10:15. Exiting the open under 2095.75 would be unlikely to trigger bias-up.
Morning Bias
| MON morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2104.75 | 2103.00 |
| …would target | 2112.50 | 2110.75 |
| Bias-down: under | 2092.50 | 2090.75 |
| …would target | 2087.00 | 2085.25 |
| Signal status: BIAS-UP | FAQ | |
| INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 | ||
1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Post-market Wrap (recording & summary)
In addition to gaining traction for its effort, Friday’s recovery was also bullish for its restrained optimism. Not filling the gap back up to Thursday’s close left its attraction above outstanding. Reversing down from here would all but require gapping down sharply.
Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here, which is extended to include the bigger picture since there is no Saturday Review this weekend.
Monitor Sunday night’s Globex trading beginning at 6pm ET in the chaRTroom here.
Pre-close View… Pattern pops.
It’s not positive territory, but it’s positive.
We’ll review the bigger picture at today’s post-market Wrap since there is NO Saturday Review this weekend. Please join us in the chaRTroom by 4:03 ET.
This week’s intraday patterns have shared a common trait of recovering from initial dips. And despite plunging 23 points from the 2106.00 pre-open high down to 2082.75, the pattern remains intact by having recovered at least to 2101.00.
2101.00 was the next relevant resistance above the afternoon’s 2099.00 bias-up signal, once the bias environment began lapsing. Its attraction kept alive momentum long enough for the rally to gain traction by exiting the bias environment above the noon hour’s high, and then by entering the final hour even higher.
Despite the rally gaining traction, a pullback could extend down to lower prior highs at 2093.75-2095.50. Resuming the rally today would target a probe above the 2106.00 overnight high, i.e. new highs. And being a new trend high close on a Friday, the uptrend would be entrenched for at least one more new trend high close.
Daily Spot…
fA daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.
Eurodollar Sep Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Chipping away previously at the 1.1205 bounce limit proved useful in Friday’s reaction to the Employment Situation report. Surging through it tested the two-week old consolidation’s upper-end at 1.1350. Back under 1.1315 would signal at least an attack on 1.1205 to prevent a more substantial multi-session corrective rally.
Gold Aug Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Surging through Thursday’s 1220.00 high in reaction to Friday’s Employment Situation report extended to test 1246.00. Back under 1231.00 would signal the surge was not gaining momentum, and under 1225.50 would signal momentum reversing down to retest Sunday night’s lows.
Silver Jul Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Gapping up Friday from the consolidation around 16.00 forms an Island reversal pattern that requires being retested. Reversing down into that retest can begin at any time if 16.60 isn’t recovered — and Friday’s surge didn’t even touch 16.50.
30-year Treasury Sep Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
The reaction to Friday’s Employment Situation report surged to fresh highs testing the 166-12 target up to 166-23. Its consolidation tried resolving up but only momentarily pierced a fresh high.
Crude Oil Jul Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Without almost literally exploding higher, the ongoing distribution around 49.00 remains likely to capitulate down. A credible signal would already trend down sharply before the close. Friday’s reaction down didn’t fall very far, but gapping down Monday could compensate for the delay.
Natural Gas Jul Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Higher highs before Friday’s open created a gap up that was reversed back under Thursday’s 2.40 close intraday. Thursday’s close fulfilled the minimum requirement of Tuesday’s confirmed breakout, so extending higher immediately would help to suggest the recovery’s momentum remains intact. Still testing 2.40 through the close at least doesn’t reject the rally’s momentum.