S&P
Morning Bias
| FRI morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2105.00 | 2103.00 |
| …would target | 2111.50 | 2109.50 |
| Bias-down: under | 2097.50 | 2095.50 |
| …would target | 2090.00 | 2088.00 |
| Signal status: BIAS-DOWN, BIAS-DOWN TARGET EXCEEDED | FAQ | |
| INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 | ||
1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Post-market Wrap (recording & summary)
Patterns often are counter-intuitive. Hovering at 2101.00 through Thursday’s bias environment’s exit, instead of trending up, still reflected optimism. Extending up to 2102.25 into the final half-hour reflected pessimism for being only slightly higher.
But the multi-session pattern has recovered from its opening dip back up to its midweek low. And only back up to its opening dip. That’s restrained optimism, which keeps alive potential for reacting favorably to Friday’s pre-open Employment Situation report.
A next-to-last minute dip to 2099.25 reflected more pessimism, “ineffectual pessimism” whose reaction down held above prior lows. That potential pent-up buying pressure was already spent by a last-minute surge up to 2104.00. and that neutralized the outstanding Globex trend extreme’s attraction. None of which prevents a negative resolution or negative knee-jerk reaction to the news. but all of which suggests a bullish resolution from a contrary perspective.
Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here.
Monitor overnight Globex trading in the chaRTroom here.
Pre-close View… One more wall of worry.
Fresh highs meeting resistance of pre-payrolls anxiousness.
Optimism ahead of tomorrow morning’s Employment Situation report has enabled today’s post-open recovery. Extending from its 2086.75 low up to 2101.25 is producing the first retest of Tuesday’s 2100.00 gap up.
Being a gap up above all prior intraday highs, filling it was required. Sunday night’s 2103.75 new Globex trend extreme requires an intraday retest, too. But its outstanding attraction can’t prevent the filled gap’s resistance from triggering a little more backing-and-filling.
Probing fresh highs now allows a little more backing-and-filling without being bearish. This new element to the chart structure can cut both ways — optimism ahead of tomorrow morning’s report can now turn to anxiousness that inhibits extending any higher today. A pullback has room down to 2095.00 before suggesting anything more durable underway.
Otherwise, regardless of when the rally extends, its next higher objective above 2103.75 is 2016.00-2018.00. Today’s post-market Wrap will discuss the possible outcomes to trying to trend higher into the weekend.
Daily Spot…
A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.
Eurodollar Sep Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
ECB’s policy statement Thursday triggered volatility that probed back above the 1.1205 bounce limit. Closing above it would launch a sizable rally, even if only a correction. Meanwhile, Sunday night’s low can still be retested down to 1.1055.
Gold Aug Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Despite originating from a slightly higher low that retested Tuesday’s 1210.50 low, the bounce into Thursday’s open failed to violate the ongoing downtrend of lower highs. If Wednesday’s high doesn’t hold as resistance, then the bounce has additional room up to 1220.00 before no longer being likely to retest Sunday night’s low into the 1190‘s.
Silver Jul Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Gravitating back up to the 16.00 attraction Thursday helped to solidify the congestion there and up to 16.15 that should continue to prevent a new durable downleg from beginning.
30-year Treasury Sep Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Retracing much of Wednesday’s intraday rally didn’t matter since its 163-05 buy signal remained triggered, which was proved by extending sharply higher Thursday. Greeting Friday’s Employment Situation report from th position of strength of a confirmed breakout doesn’t prevent an initially negative knee-jerk reaction down, but it does make a reaction down likely to be only temporary before extending to fresh highs targeting 166-12.
Crude Oil Jul Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Wednesday’s recovery back up to its 49.00 sell signal after gapping down under it was essentially repeated Thursday amid heavy focus on OPEC meeting. The gap down was relatively higher, as was the reaction back up to 49.00. Still, negating the capitulative topping pattern all but requires almost literally exploding higher without much further delay.
Natural Gas Jul Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Greeting Thursday’s EIA report from the position of strength of a confirmed breakout could have reacted down momentarily anyway, but didn’t. Extending higher without delay has already produced the eventual third higher close required by the confirmed breakout. This setup has no unfinished business above, so a durable rally is very dependent upon extending higher Friday, too.
Mid-day Update… Holding up. And out.
Filling the gap back to the close, feeling its resistance.
The initial post-open probe under overnight lows has recovered to fill the gap back to yesterday’s 2097.00 close. The 2099.00 bias-up signal wasn’t touched before triggering no-bias, so extending higher will need to be delayed until the bias environment begins lapsing at 2:30.
Overbought RSIs at the recovery high require its eventual retest. The balance of the bias environment may simply hover back down to 2095.00 awaiting that window for extending higher. A deeper reaction has room down to 2093.00 before suggesting anything more substantial underway.
Regardless, extending higher at all today would be vulnerable to extending higher aggressively. Sunday night’s 2103.75 “new Globex trend extreme” requires an eventual intraday retest, and the delay may be compensated by probing well above it. Still not rallying during the final hour would start to look toppy.