S&P
The First Trade… Was that the dip?
Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.
CHARTROOM LINK
(pre-open Market Tour begins at 8:55 ET)
Through the prior close…
A sudden reaction down reversed Wednesday afternoon’s required retest of the morning’s overbought RSIs at 2092.00. Despite being late-afternoon and attacking the 2086.00 prior low, the plunge was retraced entirely to 2092.50. It reacted down just as sharply into the close. But the close was well into positive territory, confirming Tuesday’s breakout. The afternoon’s 2084.75 bias-up target remained unfinished business.
Overnight action’s new info…
Wednesday’s last sharp reversal down extended lower overnight to 2082.50. Firming long before Europe’s opens has extended back up to 2091.00, which is being retested after an interim dip to 2085.25.
If, then…
Having entrenched itself, the rally can afford to hesitate again with another pullback. Like the overnight dip, it’s likely to be shallow and brief, so that the ongoing recovery can maintain a steep slope. A little deeper into the mid-to-low 2070‘s would still be effective. Regardless, a correction isn’t required, but likely if the open isn’t already rallying.
First Trade…
[Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 under 2087.50 would be unlikely to trigger the 2092.75 bias-up signal at 10:15. Exiting the open above 2095.00 would be likely to trigger bias-up.
Morning Bias
| THU morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2095.50 | 2092.75 |
| …would target | 2101.25 | 2098.50 |
| Bias-down: under | 2083.25 | 2080.50 |
| …would target | 2075.75 | 2073.00 |
| Signal status: NO-BIAS | FAQ | |
| INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 | ||
1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Post-market Wrap (recording & summary)
Wednesday morning’s overbought RSIs at 2092.00 had required its retest. The afternoon’s extremely narrow 2-1/2 point range resolved up just enough to touch 2092.00. But that only stretched the rubber band to snap back down to fresh afternoon lows.
Plunging to within 1 tick of the noon hour’s 2086.00 low digested the sudden reversal, and then recovered it. Fresh highs were probed up to 2092.50. That also reacted down — considerably, to 2087.50, and only a little less aggressively than plunging.
It’s pretty choppy, but it’s also pretty narrow. Like a very large pebble being cast into a very small pond. But it is a lot chop at the high of a move.
Nevertheless, the afternoon’s 2094.75 unfinished business above outstanding. It requires being retested, too. Wednesday’s second consecutive higher close confirms Tuesday’s breakout, now requiring at least an eventual third higher close.
Having entrenched itself, the rally can afford to hesitate again with another pullback. But not very deep or for much time, as a valid recovery should still be steep.
Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here.
Monitor overnight Globex trading in the chaRTroom here.
Pre-close View… Skittish.
High’s retest reacts down hard.
Don’t blink, you’ll miss it
Overbought RSIs at this morning’s 2092.00 required a retest. It was just retested by a blip-up from the bias environment’s extremely narrow 2-1/2 point range.It reacted down even more quickly — and much more substantially, attacking the noon hour’s 2086.00 low.
The 15-minute 6-point dip hasn’t extended lower in almost 10 minutes. Back above 2088.25 would suggest that it won’t.
Back above 2090.25 would confirm this afternoon’s 2094.75 bias-up target is in-play. It’s already “unfinished business above,” requiring an eventual test. Its attraction can be satisfied overnight, but probing fresh highs with more than a single surge would create another attraction above.
Daily Spot…
A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.
Eurodollar Jun Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Having fulfilled the minimum requirement Tuesday from last week’s confirmed breakout, Wednesday’s narrow ranging firmed, only back up to Monday’s high, leaving the decline’s momentum intact.
Gold Jun Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
The next lower objective under 1241.00 at 1223.00 had been put into play by closing Tuesday under 1236.50. Probing under it and under 1218.00 intraday was still overlapping 1223.00 into the afternoon. But closing negative confirms Tuesday’s breakout from a multi-session range, requiring at least an eventual third lower close.
Silver Jul Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Wednesday’s inside day ranged exclusively in negative territory after gapping down, continuing its relative outperformance to Gold. But “ineffectual pessimism” or not, attraction above to the 16.50 anchor is still trying to prevent another downleg.
30-year Treasury Jun Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Tuesday night’s dip probed back into the 163-16/163-22 pullback limit that had limited the intraday reaction down. Wednesday fluctuated narrowly, barely attacking the 164-17 buy signal while twice dipping to test its pullback limit.
Crude Oil Jul Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Probing above 49.00 Wednesday instead of reacting down almost immediately from its Tuesday test has created a target at slightly higher highs up to 49.95 and potentially 51.45. But now closing back under 48.40 would signal momentum reversing down.
Natural Gas Jun Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Wednesday morning wasted no time duplicating the two prior day’s relentless drop, extending back down to last week’s 1.95 spike low.