S&P
Daily Spot…
A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.
Eurodollar Mar Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Monday’s recovery from Sunday night’s fresh pullback lows had bought a little time to delay resuming Wednesday’s surge. But Monday night’s lower lows didn’t help, and gapping down to 1.1475 support failed to recover positive territory before extending down sharply intraday to test 1.1440. Now a buy signal can be triggered by closing back above 1.1500.
Gold Feb Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Greeting Tuesday’s session in the ongoing multi-session narrow range tried breaking higher Tuesday morning attacking 1295.00, only to snap back down to the range’s 1286.50 lower-end, still above te 1283.00 sell signal.
Silver Mar Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
The narrow multi-session range rejected Tuesday’s gap down by blipping-up to 15.75, only to return to the open’s gap down at 15.58 and maintain the ongoing range.
30-year Treasury Mar Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Overnight strength stopped short of touching the 146-04 buy signal before dipping into negative territory Tuesday morning and testing the range’s 145-08 support.
Crude Oil Feb Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
The pullback from last week’s 53.30 high made no new low as Tuesday bounced back to at least 53.15, still within the range and without signaling a new leg.
Natural Gas Feb Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Probing higher overnight to 3.72 was retraced Tuesday morning to 3.45, when a second consecutive higher close had been needed to confirm momentum had reversed up durably.
Mid-day Update… Not so fast.
Fresh highs retesting the rally’s target.
The open’s surge to 2606.00 had reacted down to test 2593.00. That reaction down overlapped the morning’s 2595.75 bias-up target at 10:15 to avoid renewing the bias-up signal. It was still a bias-up environment, but that was also a pretty significant reversal. Reinforcements were inhibited, and the balance of the morning ranged sideways.
Extending higher into the noon hour probed fresh highs attacking 1614.00. Its reaction down to 2605.00 was still overlapping this afternoon’s 2608.50 bias-up signal at 1:20. And it was still being overlapped at 1:30. This is a noN-bias environment — no requirement for the bias-up signal to hold its test, and no requirement for its 2615.50 bias-up target to be met.
Back above 2611.50 would signal that upside momentum had resumed, presumably to test the 2615.50 bias-up target anyway. Potentially, there is also room for noise above 2606.00 up to 2626.00 before beginning to suggest that 2656.00 may come into play. Back under 2601.50 would signal another attempt to reject today’s test of 2606.00.
Look ahead: Economic Calendar – for Wed Jan 16, 2019
A midday look ahead in preparation for economic reports and events scheduled for the next trading day.
Highlights: Wednesday’s calendar is busy, but none of its items is reliably influential to price action. Not until the afternoon’s Beige Book release, which is high-profile so that any surprises can generate a reaction.
MBA Mortgage Applications
7:00 AM ET
Retail Sales
8:30 AM ET
Import and Export Prices
8:30 AM ET
Redbook
8:55 AM ET
Business Inventories
10:00 AM ET
Housing Market Index
10:00 AM ET
EIA Petroleum Status Report
10:30 AM ET
*Neel Kashkari Speaks
1:00 PM ET
*Beige Book
2:00 PM ET
Treasury International Capital
4:00 PM ET
Afternoon Bias
| TUE afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2608.25 | 2608.50 |
| …would target | 2615.25 | 2615.50 |
| Bias-down: under | 2594.75 | 2595.00 |
| …would target | 2587.75 | 2588.00 |
| Signal status: noN-BIAS, TESTED BIAS-UP SIGNAL | . | |
| BIAS VIDEOS… INTRO // EXAMPLE | ||
1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Post-open Review… The picture comes alive.
Upside target met, meets downside reaction.
Retracing the overnight 20-point rally to 2600.25 had come within 1 tick of the 2580.00 earlier Globex low. 
Before the open. The open was greeted 5 points higher, making the Globex-flip setup unlikely to try forming.
Immediately rallying post-open became a Running Correction as overnight highs were recovered. It launched a surge to 2607.00, fulfilling the rally’s next higher objective at 2606.00. A collapse began several minutes later and extended to retrace the Running Correction’s 2593.00 low.
Bias-up triggered easily. But renewing the signal above its 2595.75 bias-up target failed at 10:15, despite having probed it by 11 points just several minutes earlier. This is still a bias-up environment, so the bias-up target can be exceeded again and the rally could even resume. But either is always difficult when buyers have gotten ahead of themselves.
We’ve expected a fresh high to test 2606.00, which it did. We’ve expected that probing fresh highs would be tenuous if attempted, which it was and it is. No matter how much we expect that to result in a peak, nothing prevents trying to probe higher and delaying a reversal down.