S&P
Look ahead: Economic Calendar – for Thu May 5, 2016
A midday look ahead in preparation for economic reports and events scheduled for the next trading day.
Highlights: One more day before Friday’s payrolls, and three more reports to guage the market’s sentiment toward strong or weak data. Still, none of Thursday’s reports have a reliable track record for influencing price action. And neither do any of the day’s other reports.
Neel Kashkari Speaks
THU 5:30 PM ET
Challenger Job-Cut Report
7:30 AM ET
Jobless Claims
8:30 AM ET
Gallup Good Jobs Rate
8:30 AM ET
Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index
9:45 AM ET
EIA Natural Gas Report
10:30 AM ET
Fed Balance Sheet
4:30 PM ET
Money Supply
4:30 PM ET
Afternoon Bias
| WED afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2056.00 | 2049.75 |
| …would target | 2061.25 | 2055.00 |
| Bias-down: under | 2047.25 | 2041.00 |
| …would target | 2041.00 | 2034.75 |
| Signal status: NO-BIAS, TESTED BIAS-DOWN SIGNAL | FAQ | |
| INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 | ||
1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Post-open Review… Last last gasp?
Post-open bounce resembles yesterday afternoon’s rally.
Corrective bounces often exhibit the trait of urgency. Weak sponsorship will abandon a move when its momentum becomes suspicious. So, they must keep hesitation to a minimum while fulfilling their higher objective.
A pre-open dip had retested what would be this morning’s renewed bias-down target at 2042.75. So did a post-open dip, after quickly attacking 2048.00. Quickly recovering to fresh post-open highs was able to overlap the 2052.75 bias-down signal at 10:15 to invoke the grace period.
All quick, like a temporary correction.
Bias-down triggered late. The 2052.75 bias-down signal should still define the range’s upper-end if retested. Its 2046.75 target was just retested, and this being a bias-down environment, it need not hold as support.
Not renewing the bias-down signal at 10:15 has made lower objectives at 2030.00-2035.00 unlikely to be met this morning. The bigger picture still points there, although recovering the 2052.75 bias-down signal while the bias environment is lapsing would be bullish.
Pre-market Tour (recording & summary)
The overnight drop probed 1 point under what would be the 2041.75 renewed bias-down target. A reaction up came within 1 tick of the 2046.75 bias-down target, and now 2041.75 is being retested as support.
That reaction down has formed a Falling Wedge, and its low is stopping optimistically short of touching the actual low.
Breaking lower from this pattern is likely to be aggressive, targeting the upper-end of the 2035.00-2035.00 objective. Recovering 2044.75 first — which is being tested now — would make the next downleg likely to originate from 2048.00.
Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the pre-market Tour recording here.
The First Trade… Another banana peel slip.
Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.
CHARTROOM LINK
(pre-open Market Tour begins at 8:55 ET)
Through the prior close…
Monday night’s slide had greeted Tuesday’s open back at Friday’s 2060.50 close, rejecting Monday’s interim rally. Probing lower and not exploiting recovery setups then indicated the trend was down, extending to 2048.00. Rallying into and out of the noon hour triggered the afternoon’s 2057.00 bias-up signal. Being only a correction, the rally extended quickly to within 1 tick of its 2063.50 target. Being a correction that had met its target, price fell back to 2052.50. The position-squaring window’s bounce attacked 2059.50.
Overnight action’s new info…
Firming into Asia’s opens had attacked 2060.50, but Tuesday’s late low was soon being probed down to 2051.25. Europe’s opens triggered another attack on 2059.50, but that was soon retraced, and then reversed. Tuesday and Friday’s lows are being probed to 2041.00.
If, then…
There was no bullish reason to revisit Friday’s range. It had already recovered from probing early-April’s consolidation. Its breakout had launched the last rally leg, so retesting it once was done either to launch another rally, or else to break lower. Retesting it twice suggests the latter. Having failed Monday’s bounce from Friday’s testing the prior consolidation’s upper-end as support, a probe under its 2030.00-2035.00 lower-end is the next objective. A significant gap down is indicated, which if not being reversed through the opening 15 minutes, would suggest significant follow-through into the afternoon.
First Trade…
Exiting the open at 9:45 under 2042.75 would be unlikely to recover the 2046.75 bias-down target by 10:15 and renew the bias-down signal. Exiting the open above 2048.75 would be likely to recover the bias-down target through 10:15.