S&P
Post-open Review… Another dip.
Taking a little long to recover.
The 2584.00 open was extended to 2577.00, where a bounce attacked the 2588.00 bias-down signal to within 2 ticks into the 10:15 timing window. Bias-down triggered, and its 2581.00 bias-down target has been retested down to 2577.50. RSIs avoided becoming oversold during both dips. There is no unfinished business below.
Already recovering to avoid triggering bias-down would have been bullish, putting into play offsetting tests of both bias-up parameters. Already recovering above yesterday’s 2585.00 last relative low would have been bullish to signal that sellers are weak-handed.
Although the bias-down target held to avoid renewing the bias-down, this is still a bias-down environment. Recovering back above its 2588.00 bias-down signal by noon could neutralize the bearishness of not having recovered 2585.00 through the open. Otherwise, extending the decline has room to test 2567.00 before a much deeper reversal can begin.
The First Trade & Pre-open Tour Recording… Range bound.
Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.
DAILY SCHEDULE
First, watch the pre-open Tour recording HERE <<==
Then, meet in the chaRTroom here by 9:15 ET for updates and Q&A
Through the prior close…
Wednesday night’s drop to 2560.50 under intraday lows was tempered before Thursday’s open, but bias-down triggered anyway. Bias-down triggered cleanly after testing its target, but rallied through the morning and noon hour up to 2593.50. Its 20-point pullback recovered to fresh highs attacking 2600.00.The ongoing series of higher highs and higher lows was maintained, albeit threatened.
Overnight action’s new info…
There has been no follow-through to yesterday’s last rally legs. Instead, reactions down have attacked and probed 2588.00 as support. Bounces have attacked and probed 2597.00 as resistance. The sideways range’s lower-end is now being attacked.
If, then… (notes to accompany the Tour recording)
The rally’s next higher objective at 2606.00 remains intact. Thursday’s extra swing makes fresh highs somewhat likelier to include the room for noise up to 2626.00. Regardless, any reversal setup that includes at least a touch of 2606.00 would be credible for extending back down. Meanwhile nothing in the pattern prohibits another interim dip, limited to 2581.00 to be brief or to 2567.00 to be recoverable, while any deeper could make fresh highs unlikely.
First Trade…
[Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 above 2590.75 would be unlikely to trigger the 2588.00 bias-down signal as support. Exiting the open under 2586.00 would be likely to trigger bias-down.
Morning Bias
| FRI morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2598.25 | 2598.50 |
| …would target | 2605.25 | 2605.50 |
| Bias-down: under | 2587.50 | 2588.00 |
| …would target | 2580.50 | 2581.00 |
| Signal status: BIAS-DOWN, BIAS-DOWN TARGET MET | . | |
| BIAS VIDEOS… INTRO // EXAMPLE | ||
1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Market Wrap (recording & summary)
Thursday morning’s bias-down signal triggered after a post-open dip to had probed 9 points under the bias-down target to 2562.00 — still above the 2560.50 overnight low, and all well below Wednesday’s 2582.50 and 2586.25 closes. Also, all well below Wednesday’s 2569.00 low, failing to form a bullish Isolation setup.
But the morning rallied anyway, testing the window’s 2679.00 bias-down signal as resistance. And probing it, filling the gap back to Wednesday’s 2582.50-2586.25 closes, and testing the morning’s 2590.75 bias-up signal where any higher would have invalidated the bias-down environment. But another dip was required, and it got to 2573.50 before resuming the rally to close back at or above Wednesday’s 2596.75 high to finally isolate the overnight/open’s failed reversal attempt.
The rally’s next higher objective at 2606.00 remains intact, somewhat likelier to include its room for noise up to 2626.00. None of which prevents another interim dip, although it should be limited to 2581.00 to be brief, or to 2567.00 to be recoverable.
Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here.
Monitor overnight Globex trading in the chaRTroom here.
Daily Spot…
A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.
Eurodollar Mar Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Thursday’s dip tested the gap below down to 1.1547 that Wednesday’s rally had sliced through. Buying pressure should be impatient and help to prevent any further weakness.
Gold Feb Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Firming overnight to 1298.00 wasn’t extended intraday Thursday. More so, it was retraced into negative territory down to 1287.00. The 1283.00 buy signal wasn’t threatened, but likely will be if the pattern isn’t rallying into the weekend.
Silver Mar Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Flat-to-higher ranging Wednesday became choppier Thursday as early strength was reversed into negative territory. The early attraction to prior highs wasn’t overly optimistic, but rallying further is likely so long as early selling is avoided Friday.
30-year Treasury Mar Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Flat-to-lower hovering just above 145-08 essentially held Wednesday’s lows. A fresh low can’t be discounted, but it must snap back up and rally strongly to avoid triggering a larger downleg.
Crude Oil Feb Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Flat-to-higher ranging Thursday tested 52.70, still having room down to 51.00 to maintain the rally. Othewsise, back under 50.15 would start to signal the trend reversing down.
Natural Gas Feb Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Narrow sideways ranging didn’t seem to exploit Thursday’s inside day, and its own mild pessimism. But any initial strength Friday would likely be credible for extending higher into the weekend.