S&P
Afternoon Bias
| MON afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2091.25 | 2085.00 |
| …would target | 2097.00 | 2090.75 |
| Bias-down: under | 2083.25 | 2076.00 |
| …would target | 2077.25 | 2071.00 |
| Signal status: waiting for trigger | FAQ | |
| INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 | ||
1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Post-open Review… Aggressively bullish, indeed.
Post-open action wastes little time before surging. And surging.
The bullish WedEX’s influence Friday afternoon was modest. It reversed a probe of fresh lows to recover at fresh afternoon highs. And having been modestly influential Friday afternoon, its influence this morning was likely to be aggressive.
In fact, the 2066.75 opening print reacted down only 6 ticks during the next minute, before reversing up sharply. The 2071.75 bias-up signal was being tested by 9:45. Surging into and out of 10:00 had extended to 2079.00. That has extended to 2081.25.
Regardless of its starting point being a gap down, 14 points in a half-hour is aggressive and bullish. But it’s not yet morning-long, which is still under WedEX’s influence.
Meanwhile, a new challenge has appeared. The open tested the 2067.50 bias-down target and recovered the 2071.75 bias-down signal. Just holding the bias signal’s test through 10:15 would put into play an offsetting test of the other bias signal. Recovering a bias signal and its target, would put into play tests of both of the other bias parameters.
But the consequences for ineffectual pessimism are neutralized already. Testing this morning’s 2078.50 bias-up signal is now the focus. And at 10:15 it was still being overlapped to invoke the grace period.
So, the 2085.75 bias-up target is in-play because the 2078.50 bias-up signal was recovered through 10:30. Its test at least attack is likely anyway, with influence from the bullish WedEX. Only dipping back under 2076.25 would raise any suspicion otherwise.
Pre-market Tour (recording & summary)
The reaction down from 2072.75 has dipped to 2065.50. A 4-point bounce has been retraced entirely back down to 2065.50. Rallying should be obvious no later than the first 3-5 minutes or at least halfway through the opening 15 minutes of volatility. But not yet rallying by then, or actually trending down, could invalidate the bullish WedEX.
Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the pre-market Tour recording here.
The First Trade… No agreement IS agreement.
Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.
CHARTROOM LINK
(pre-open Market Tour begins at 8:55 ET)
Through the prior close…
Friday’s expiration session developed almost entirely in negative territory, resisted by Thursday’s 2076.00 close. Fresh lows down to 2069.50 during the afternoon bias environment were recovered just enough just in time to avoid gaining traction, firming further to close at 2075.00. Unfinished business below was left outstanding at 2067.50.
Overnight action’s new info…
Sunday night’s open gapped down 10-11 points to 2064.00 while Crude Oil gapped down almost $2 on no agreement by OPEC members to cut output. Crude’s loss extended to almost $3 as 2058.50 was touched. Reacting up into and out of Europe’s opens twice tested this morning’s 2071.75 bias-down signal as resistance, reaching 2072.75. Both tests reacted back down under Friday’s 2069.50 afternoon bias environment lows to test 2068.00 as support, which is being retested again now. Crude remains well under Friday’s lows.
If, then…
Unfinished business at 2067.50 was fulfilled overnight, while testing its next lower objective at 2059.50. The reaction up to 2070.00 was impressive, but also premature. The bullish WedEX should dispense similarly with the cash session gapping down. In any case, the bullish WedEX should soon resolve any open by rallying through the morning. But a bullish WedEX may be difficult if opening action must absorb selling by overnight buyers getting flat. Regardless, I’ll be monitoring for rallying back into positive territory, and then extending higher while Crude Oil does not, for early signs of a multi-session rally that breaks free from its Crude Oil correlation.
First Trade…
Exiting the open at 9:45 under 2068.25 would be likely to trigger the 2071.75 bias-down signal at 10:15. Exiting the open above 2073.25 would be unlikely to trigger bias-down.
Sunday night’s Globex chaRTroom link
OPEC meeting ends without agreement. Saudis threaten to dump Treasuries. Brazil voting on impeachment, Russian jets buzz US military, Cavaliers tied with the Pistons.
There’s tension everywhere.
How will the market react when S&Ps start the new week at 6pm ET? Monitor trading overnight in the chaRTroom by CLICKING HERE. I’ll be checking in later, and will annotate the chart if anything interesting develops.