S&P
Post-open Review… Discomfort zone.
Pre-open slide dips back under Friday’s highs.
Double Tops want to be retested. Overnight patterns must establish their influence of intraday action during the opening 15 minutes. So, retesting the pre-open Double Top at 2071.50 required maintaining the overnight high’s orbit.
Reacting down pre-open from the overnight Double Top had room down to 2065.00 before breaking free from from the overnight high’s orbit. The open was 3 ticks lower, and extended relentlessly to 2061.00.
That exceeds the overnight high’s attraction. I’m giving a recovery some benefit of the doubt anyway, so long as fresh post-open lows are probed first. This being a no-bias environment, a test of its 2059.50 bias-down signal should define the range’s lower-end, even if probed.
Exiting the bias environment at 11:30 would suggest the overnight highs will be retested without first probing fresh post-open lows. Buy signals probably won’t be considered without that much strength or else fulfilling fresh lows.
Pre-market Tour (recording & summary)
A retest of the 2071.50 overnight high was interrupted by a dip to this morning’s 2068.25 bias-up signal. The second test’s reaction is probing lower to test 2066.00. There is room below for another 3-4 ticks before starting to suggest the pre-open highs won’t be retested intraday. Retesting the pre-open highs intraday won’t be immune to reversing down much more substantially.
Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the pre-market Tour recording here.
The First Trade… Starting off on the right foot.
Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.
CHARTROOM LINK
(pre-open Market Tour begins at 8:55 ET)
Through the prior close…
Trending down Thursday night had produced a third downleg since Wednesday’s top, while fulfilling the likely 2039.25 pullback objective in reaction to the pre-open Employment Situation report. A couple of post-open dips through Friday’s opening 15 minutes of volatility touched 2034.25 but failed to resume the decline. A bottom was obvious when 2039.25 was recovered after two econ reports had exceeded expectations. Expectations for a morning-long substantial rally tested 2057.25. The afternoon extended until touching 2067.00. Buyers gained traction for the effort by exiting the bias environment at 2:30 above the noon hour’s range, and then entering the final hour above the bias environment’s range. “Unfinished business below” was left outstanding at 2048.75.
Overnight action’s new info…
Immediately dipping to 2061.00 was gradually recovered to momentarily probe a fresh high at 2068.00. Reacting back down to attack the 2061.00 was recovered to fresh highs, extending to 2071.50.
If, then…
Friday’s new high close all but requires an eventual higher close before a durable decline would be credible. That does not prevent a temporary decline. The 2067.00-2068.00 area would have been last Wednesday’s next higher objective, had the morning’s rally extended into another timing window. Now that objective is being me, and its attraction above neutralized. Regardless of how high it might be probed this morning, holding its test as resistance would likely launch a correction back down to the 2048.75 unfinished business below, if not also to 2041.00. The alternative to exploiting this pullback opportunity would instead likely extend the rally at a steep slope until probing last year’s 2096.00-2098.00 highs.
First Trade…
Exiting the open at 9:45 under 2065.00 would be unlikely to trigger the 2068.25 bias-up signal at 10:15. Exiting the open at 10:15 above 2071.25 would be likely to trigger the 2068.25 bias-up signal at 10:15. Exiting the open above 2075.25 would be likely also to exceed the 2072.75 bias-up target to renew the bias-up signal.
Sunday night’s Globex chaRTroom link
S&Ps start the new week at 6pm ET. Monitor trading overnight in the chaRTroom by CLICKING HERE.
I’ll be checking in later, and will annotate the chart if anything interesting develops.
Morning Bias
| MON morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2076.50 | 2068.25 |
| …would target | 2081.00 | 2072.75 |
| Bias-down: under | 2067.75 | 2059.50 |
| …would target | 2061.25 | 2053.00 |
| Signal status: NO-BIAS | FAQ | |
| INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 | ||
1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.