S&P
Morning Bias
| MON morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2037.50 | 2028.25 |
| …would target | 2044.50 | 2035.25 |
| Bias-down: under | 2032.00 | 2022.75 |
| …would target | 2025.75 | 2016.50 |
| Signal status: noN-BIAS, TESTED BIAS-UP SIGNAL | FAQ | |
| INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 | ||
1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Look ahead: Economic Calendar – for Mon Mar 28, 2016
A midday look ahead in preparation for economic reports and events scheduled for the next trading day.
Highlights: Coming back from a three-day weekend has slightly more econ reports than usual scheduled. Among them, only PMI has a track record for influencing price action. But the extra load starting out the week does create opportunity for contradicting data, or confirmation of extreme reports.
International Trade in Goods
8:30 AM ET
Personal Income and Outlays
8:30 AM ET
*PMI Services Flash
9:45 AM ET
Pending Home Sales Index
10:00 AM ET
Dallas Fed Mfg Survey
10:30 AM ET
3-Month Bill Auction
11:30 AM ET
6-Month Bill Auction
11:30 AM ET
2-Yr Note Auction
1:00 PM ET
Post-market Wrap (recording & summary)
Being the day before a 3-day holiday weekend, Thursday’s sponsorship was by definition weak-handed. Bouncing during the morning’s bias-down environment was all the more so. Reversing down to the decline’s 2009.00 objective could have ended the pullback.
But the bounce extended. The morning’s bounce had created room to absorb selling pressure, but that room had to be exploited without delay. The afternoon’s extended bounce made the mistake of closing at 2027.00 resistance (cash session close). Counter-intuitively, rather than create extra room to absorb selling, sellers were refueled. Holding 2009.00 is now only more difficult.
That potential for not holding 2009.00 hasn’t been in our discussions previously. Stretching the rubber band so much tighter Thursday has introduced another template seeking bigger objectives than just neutralizing “lower prior highs,” looking instead to fill gaps. The nearest qualifying objective is 1980.00.
What if 2009.00 is not tested next? The gap back down to Thursday’s 2015.00 open should facilitate that. But not already reversing down at Monday’s open could extend the bounce to 2039.00-2041.00 while still being only a temporary correction. Even if sellers weren’t obviously in control at Monday’s open, I would still be skeptical of further upside if Monday’s open wasn’t already obviously extending higher.
Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here.
REMINDER: NO SATURDAY REVIEW ON HOLIDAY WEEKENDS. CHARTROOM WILL RE-OPEN SUNDAY NIGHT.
Daily Spot…
A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.
Eurodollar Mar Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
By gapping down within the prior day’s range instead of under it, Thursday’s open was the most bullish development since last week’s high. But it still didn’t react to 1.1190 support, suggesting a deeper pullback to 1.1150-1.1155 remains underway.
Gold Apr Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Probing $5 under the 1216.50-1223.00 target area overnight and then reacting up early Thursday to probe its upper-end may be helping to form a bottom. A couple of consecutive closes above 1223.00 would signal and confirm.
Silver May Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Firming from Wednesday’s test of 15.25 didn’t extend the break under 15.70, which will allow for a recovery to form without probing back under 14.70.
30-year Treasury Jun Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Probing intraday above 163-16 was reversed back into negative territory Thursday. Still overlapping it at Wednesday’s close keeps the door open to fresh lows targeting 160-28.
Crude Oil May Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
The 39.50 pullback target was overshot Thursday down to 38.33, but then attack into the closing strength. Having tested “lower prior highs,” a retest of the recent 42.00-42.35 gap up would likely form a durable top.
Natural Gas Apr Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
There was no clear resolution from greeting Thursday’s EIA report not from a position of weakness, but also not from a position of strength. But there was nevertheless a vulnerability to extending down, and it was not exploited. The session held 1.80 support, so closing back above 1.85 would be likely to resume the rally targeting 1.99.
Look ahead: Economic Calendar – for Fri Mar 25, 2016
A midday look ahead in preparation for economic reports and events scheduled for the next trading day.
Highlights: Markets are closed for Good Friday. Econ reports still seem to be scheduled, despite Globex not trading.
GDP
8:30 AM ET
Corporate Profits
8:30 AM ET
Baker-Hughes Rig Count
1:00 PM ET