S&P
Morning Bias
| WED morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 1988.25 | 1986.00 |
| …would target | 1995.25 | 1993.25 |
| Bias-down: under | 1979.00 | 1977.00 |
| …would target | 197.00 | 1971.75 |
| Signal status: NO-BIAS, TESTED BIAS-UP SIGNAL | FAQ | |
| INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 | ||
1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Post-market Wrap (recording & summary)
The late-afternoon’s relentless downtrending extended from the 1993.00 session high to probe under the 1977.50 morning low by 6 ticks. The cash session close equated to 1977.25, bouncing almost 4 more points into the futures close.
Sellers gained traction not be exiting the bias environment under the noon hour’s low, but by trending down lower through the final hour entry and the 3:10-3:20 window. Gapping open Wednesday above the final hour’s 1986.50 high could invalidate that traction. Otherwise, not.
Having trended down through the cash session close, gapping up above the afternoon’s high could form a “session-long rally.” Opening any shallower would likely trend down much more aggressively.
Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here.
Monitor overnight Globex trading in the chaRTroom here.
Pre-close View… Senza Gusto
Afternoon slide is lacking emphasis.
It has been relentless. Ever since the bias environment retested fresh session highs at 1993.00, price has trended down sharply. Now testing 1979.00, within 5 ticks of this morning’s low.
That’s too close to the morning’s low not to probe it. Eventually. Perhaps today, but not necessarily. Even the most bearish scenario can delay the capitulation — steep, deep trending — until tomorrow morning.
Regardless, this afternoon’s downtrending drop is not accumulative. But if short, don’t be too dismissive of too much of a bounce for too long, as a bigger bounce could develop before tomorrow morning — or the capitulation could be avoided altogether.
Daily Spot…
A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.
Eurodollar Mar Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Tuesday’s narrow sideways ranging twice tested the 1.1050 bounce target, the second time while RSIs diverged negatively. Any higher for any longer would target 1.1140, but the bounce is meanwhile vulnerable to being reversed back down.
Gold Apr Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Reacting down from another attack on the 1277.50-1288.00 target area didn’t reverse the trend down, leaving potential for a more substantial test of the target area.
Silver May Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Tuesday’s delayed trending down from having neutralized the attraction up to 15.70 does make fresh highs more difficult. But trending back down already is unlikely.
30-year Treasury Jun Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Recovering the 162-20 buy signal Monday night extended to gap up sharply Tuesday at 163-24 and then extended sharply higher intraday to test the 164-26 origin of last Tuesday’s plunge. Not first backing-and-filling Tuesday morning does undermine Wednesday’s upside momentum.
Crude Oil Apr Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Retesting Monday’s late 38.11 high up to 38.39 resolved down to gradually attack 36.40 support didn’t reverse the trend down, but it is being threatened.
Natural Gas Apr Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Still testing 1.70 resistance Tuesday instead of decisively recovering it and 1.80 to launch a substantial corrective bounce.
Mid-day Update… Leaning out of the window.
Still monitoring for capitulative downleg.
The reaction up from this morning’s 1977.50 low has touched 1993.00. That’s the highest post-open print and its still 6 points into negative territory.
Anything higher would suddenly become much likelier to probe fresh highs, like 2009.00.
Otherwise, this now being Tuesday afternoon, a downleg can now be obvious. If not today, then tomorrow morning.