S&P
Pre-close View… No go.
Sellers absorbed, but not spit back out.
The bias environment began lapsing 2-3 ticks above the noon hour’s high, while a rally leg was already underway, which extended much higher. I’ll give that setup a benefit of the doubt for gaining traction… IF it can confirm.
But despite an interim probe higher, the final hour’s entry was still overlapping the bias environment’s high. And despite recovering back to the session high, the 3:10-3:20 window didn’t extend higher. So, no confirmation.
Probing fresh highs up to 1981.00 is now reacting down 4 points. Its dip can be shallow or deep, but probably not temporary — recovering before the close is unlikely. Ranging sideways at the highs without trending back down does make fresh highs likely eventually.
Daily Spot…
A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.
Eurodollar Mar Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Still fluctuating Wednesday around the decline’s 1.0865 likely support, with potential for closing back above 1.0900 to target at least a corrective bounce to 1.1050.
Gold Apr Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Bouncing Wednesday back to 1242.00 neither rejected it nor closed above it, so there’s still room up to 1249.00 before signaling a retest of prior highs up to 1265.00.
Silver May Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Firming Wednesday recovered back up to Tuesday morning’s highs, still needing to recover 15.15 to target 15.70.
30-year Treasury Jun Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Ranging narrowly Wednesday around 162-14 didn’t extend Tuesday’s drop to confirm it, but recovering 163-14 would still signal the decline had ended, and back above 163-24 would reverse momentum back up.
Crude Oil Apr Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Fluctuating wildly around unchanged Wednesday did probe a fresh high that allows raising the sell signal 50 cents to 33.00. That doesn’t prevent breaking higher from the Symmetrical Triangle pattern that has formed, but the likelier resolution is still down.
Natural Gas Apr Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Tuesday’s late surge that never extended higher was retraced entirely overnight, but no changes were made to the pattern that would still trigger a rally above 1.80.
Look ahead: Economic Calendar – for Thu Mar 3, 2016
A midday look ahead in preparation for economic reports and events scheduled for the next trading day.
Highlights: Being payrolls week, Jobless Claims and a couple of other jobs reports have some potential to influence price action. And there being recent improvement in econ reports, Thursday’s several industrial reports should have greater influence over price action.
Challenger Job-Cut Report
7:30 AM ET
*Jobless Claims
8:30 AM ET
Productivity and Costs
8:30 AM ET
Gallup Good Jobs Rate
8:30 AM ET
PMI Services Index
9:45 AM ET
Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index
9:45 AM ET
Factory Orders
10:00 AM ET
*ISM Non-Mfg Index
10:00 AM ET
EIA Natural Gas Report
10:30 AM ET
Fed Balance Sheet
4:30 PM ET
Money Supply
4:30 PM ET
Afternoon Bias
| WED afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 1982.75 | 1980.50 |
| …would target | 1989.50 | 1987.50 |
| Bias-down: under | 1973.00 | 1971.00 |
| …would target | 1968.25 | 1966.00 |
| Signal status: NO-BIAS, TESTED BIAS-DOWN SIGNAL | FAQ | |
| INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 | ||
1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Mid-day Update… Traction sorely missed.
Still under pressure without sponsorship.
PROGRAMMING NOTE: Some instability in the chaRTroom caused some attendees to lose connections. Please let me know if you were affected to help isolate the issue’s cause… thank you.
This morning’s no-bias environment triggered without touching either bias signal. If touched later, either bias signal would be required to define that end of the range.
Bouncing to within 2 ticks of the 1977.00 bias-up signal was reversed to within 1 tick of the 1966.00 bias-down signal. Recovering that to a fresh high consolidated around the 1977.00 bias-up signal up to 1978.75.
Now the no-bias environment has lapsed. The bias signals need not define the range. But there’s still no requirement to trend beyond either end of the 1966.00–1977.00 range.
Back under 1973.75 (being tested now) would target a retest of this morning’s lows, and back above 1977.00 could extend to retest overnight highs. Still, neither resolution is required, and trending again today could be difficult until after the afternoon bias environment.