S&P
Pre-close View… Eyes closed, full ahead.
Powering through the point of vulnerability.
Retesting Friday’s 1968.75 pre-open high had targeted 1971.00 (+/-, probably +). It was pierced by 2 ticks. Then the retest would become vulnerable to reversing down.
But price only reacted temporarily, attacking this afternoon’s 1966.00 bias-up signal as support. Rather than extend down further, a recovery has probed fresh highs attacking 1976.00.
The rally didn’t gain traction for the effort. The bias environment began lapsing within the noon hour’s range to avoid gaining traction. Despite entering the final hour above the bias environment’s high, the 3:10-3:20 window did not confirm.
None of which is a sell signal. Back under 1970.50 is a sell signal. Its targets all lie under Friday’s highs — at least under Friday’s pre-open 1968.75 high and the post-open 1961.00 high, if not also much lower.
Daily Spot…
A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.
Eurodollar Mar Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Monday night’s test of 1.0865 support was recovered, as was Tuesday morning’s lower low, which continues suggesting that a bounce targeting 1.1050 may be forming.
Gold Apr Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Testing 1248.00 up to 1251.00 Tuesday was reversed down sharply to retest the 1227.50 buy signal. A second consecutive higher close above 1242.00 would have targeted a retest of prior highs up to 1265.00. Closing back above 1242.00 again would still be credible for extending higher.
Silver May Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Tuesday’s initial strength held at the 15.15 buy signal, and reversed down in reaction to the morning’s econ reports, still needing a close above to target 15.70.
30-year Treasury Jun Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Failing to gap up for a second consecutive session gave Friday’s gap down more credibility for extending lower to retest the prior week’s 163-14 low, and it was probed down to 162-04. Bounces must recover above 163-00 to suggest the decline is ended.
Closing back above 163-14 would signal the decline’s momentum had lapsed. Closing above 163-24 would signal another rally leg is underway.
Crude Oil Apr Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Retesting Friday’s ~34.65 high didn’t extend, but it wasn’t probed to justify raising the sell signal up from 32.50.
Natural Gas Apr Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Not gapping up prevented exploiting one bullish setup, but a late surge opened another that must still close above 1.80 to signal momentum reversing up.
Mid-day Update… Got there.
Attacking Friday’s pre-open high.
Testing and holding the 1946.00 bias-up target through 10:15 often identifies the morning’s peak. Not always. It’s still a bias-up environment, so not renewing the signal doesn’t prevent extending higher anyway.
And extending higher was likely. In fact, the 1951.00 renewed bias-up target was exceeded back to yesterday’s 1956.00 high, and a pullback there resolved up to attack Friday’s 1968.75 pre-open high.
Stopping 3 ticks short of touching 1968.75 is pessimistically short. That’s potentially bullish from a contrarian perspective, which keeps alive the upside. The next higher objective is not very far above at 1971.00 (+/-, probably +).
The base that launched this morning’s rally may be more productive than yesterday’s. But it’s no more durable. This afternoon remains as vulnerable as yesterday to trending back down.
Look ahead: Economic Calendar – for Wed Mar 1, 2016
A midday look ahead in preparation for economic reports and events scheduled for the next trading day.
Highlights: It’s monthly payrolls week. So it’s also time for ADP’s report, which is reliable for generating a market reaction. Often, that reaction is duplicated by post-open econ reports. Not usual for payrolls week is this afternoon’s scheduled Beige Book release, which is also very reliable for generating a market reaction.
MBA Mortgage Applications
7:00 AM ET
*ADP Employment Report
8:15 AM ET
Gallup U.S. Job Creation Index
8:30 AM ET
John Williams Speaks
10:00 AM ET
EIA Petroleum Status Report
10:30 AM ET
*Beige Book
2:00 PM ET
Afternoon Bias
| TUE afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 1968.50 | 1966.00 |
| …would target | 1973.50 | 1971.00 |
| Bias-down: under | 1961.25 | 1958.75 |
| …would target | 1955.50 | 1953.00 |
| Signal status: BIAS-UP | FAQ | |
| INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 | ||
1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.