S&P
Post-open Review… Holding pattern
Flat open not attracting new sponsorship.
Friday’s cash session close equated to 1946.00. The overnight to 1928.00 was recovered to probe above 1946.00 by a couple of points before the open. Post-open action has not extended that recovery.
Instead, the open immediately dipped back down to 1941.00-1942.00. Not gapping down had made a durable downleg unlikely. But it didn’t require a recovery, and there hasn’t been one.
The pre-open recovery to 1948.00 is being touched again now. It’s both too late and too early to be reliable for extending higher. Nevertheless, during this no-bias environment, its 1953.00 bias-up signal can be tested.
Back under 1944.00 would likely also test the 1940.25 bias-down signal. Testing 1937.00 was likely, too, until this bounce back to 1948.00.
Regardless of this morning’s range, its delayed resolution does offer another suggestion that topping is underway.
Pre-market Tour (recording & summary)
The overnight drop’s recovery extended to 1948.00. Reacting down pre-open to 1944.00 is essentially ranging around 1946.00, a big line in the sand.
Resuming the recovery post-open would be credible for extending higher throughout the day. Beware an initial gain that doesn’t hold.
Backing-and-filling could still recover — but must be recovering through the open to avoid retracing much of the overnight drop.
Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the pre-market Tour recording here.
The First Trade… Down the up staircase.
Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.
CHARTROOM LINK
(pre-open Market Tour begins at 8:55 ET)
Through the prior close…
Rallying overnight through the 1952.00-1953.00 objective attacked 1969.00. It was all retraced into and out of Friday’s open to pierce back under Thursday’s 1949.50 high. The balance of the session gyrated down to 1943.00. No traction was gained. But 1952.00-1953.00 was rejected.
Overnight action’s new info…
Sunday night’s opening dip to 1938.00 was soon recovered up to 1947.00. And that was the last of that. Returning to the open’s low finally broke lower on the way to testing 1928.00. Ranging choppily up to 1934.50 for several hours ended abruptly by spiking up 11 points to test the resistance of this morning’s 1940.25 bias-down signal on China’s news. Its reaction down to 1931.50 was recovered entirely, and consolidating there has broken higher to 1943.50.
If, then…
Not gaining traction Friday despite trending down from open to close had made extending down today unlikely without delay — not without gapping down significantly. Significantly, as in under 1937.00 or 1930.00.Having tested 1930.00 overnight, just opening positive above 1946.00 would allow not only probing back into Friday’s range at 1952.00-1953.00, but would also allow retesting Friday’s pre-open attack on 1969.00. Now having tested 1930.00 overnight, opening under 1937.00 could marginalize buyers for the day.
First Trade…
Exiting the open at 9:45 above 1946.00 would be unlikely to trigger the 1940.25 bias-down signal at 10:15. Exiting the open under 1939.00 would be likely to trigger the 1940.25 bias-down signal.
Sunday night’s Globex chaRTroom link
Gaaamme oonnn!
CLICK HERE to monitor overnight trading, which has already begun… poorly.
Morning Bias
| MON morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 1955.75 | 1953.00 |
| …would target | 1962.25 | 1959.75 |
| Bias-down: under | 1942.75 | 1940.25 |
| …would target | 1935.75 | 1933.00 |
| Signal status: NO-BIAS | FAQ | |
| INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 | ||
1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.