S&P
Morning Bias
| FRI morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 1839.75 | 1834.50 |
| …would target | 1846.50 | 1841.25 |
| Bias-down: under | 1827.25 | 1822.00 |
| …would target | 1816.75 | 1811.50 |
| Signal status: BIAS-UP, BIAS-UP TARGET MET | FAQ | |
| INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 | ||
1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Pre-close View… Fallen and can’t stay down.
Probing fresh lows caught a bid.
Exiting the morning’s bias environment probing fresh post-open lows stopped short of touching the overnight low. Firming through the noon hour and into the bias environment’s entry triggered no-bias.
The afternoon’s no-bias environment began lapsing back at the morning’s low. And then lower. But only momentarily.
Crude Oil headlines triggered a surge. More than a surge, like Godzilla is more than a lizard. A 27-point move in under a half-hour was attacking the morning’s high. And that has been retraced by 15 points.
Stopping short of this morning’s high is pessimistic. Pessimism at the peak of a 27-point surge seems counter-intuitive, and it is. But if the rally were to restart, then new highs are required.
It’s getting a little late to resume the rally, but the position-squaring window is still coming at 3:37. Catching a wind at its back can reach 1850.00 and higher. Resuming the decline is unlikely today.*
*Famous last words.
Mid-day Update… Still in the woods.
Post-open bounce didn’t gain any traction.
Surging to within 1 point of the 1834.50 bounce potential didn’t prevent exiting the bias environment 11 points under the 1818.50 open. That was a test of the critical 1807.50 level whose break through the open would have resumed the decline.
It still might.
Bouncing to retest 1818.50 held. Exceeding it would have targeting 1825.25, whose recovery could target new session highs at 1850.00 and higher.
Meanwhile, a reaction down is testing 1811.50. It might hold, too. But exceeding it would target the 1797.25 area. And any lower (which would then be likely) would resume the decline.
PROGRAMMING NOTE: I’m changing locations which should have a positive impact on bandwidth, which has suffered this morning in the chaRTroom.
Look ahead: Economic Calendar – for Fri Feb 12, 2016
A midday look ahead in preparation for economic reports and events scheduled for the next trading day.
Highlights: Friday’s pre-open Retail report is high-profile, but not very influential to price action. That said, a market reaction would be likely to repeat on later reports.
Retail Sales
8:30 AM ET
Import and Export Prices
8:30 AM ET
*Rob Kaplan Speaks
9:45 AM ET
Business Inventories
10:00 AM ET
*Consumer Sentiment
10:00 AM ET
*Baker-Hughes Rig Count
1:00 PM ET
Afternoon Bias
| THU afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 1830.75 | 1825.25 |
| …would target | 1835.75 | 1830.50 |
| Bias-down: under | 1814.25 | 1809.00 |
| …would target | 1808.50 | 1803.00 |
| Signal status: NO-BIAS | FAQ | |
| INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 | ||
1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.