S&P
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Unfortunately, I cannot get the remote machine to launch the Anymeeting software. I’ll get it running this evening, and I apologize for the issue.
Pre-close View… Range-bound means rally.
At least, it would look that way within such a wide range.
Exiting the bias environment probing the open’s 1855.50 low had an excellent opportunity to dive much deeper. Signals had triggered already from the prior bounce to 1866.00. The rally could have been largely retraced (but probably not reversed).
But bouncing into and out of the noon hour attacked 1872.00. And that’s just a corrective bounce, still well off of the morning’ 1877.75 high. Such is the power of wide ranges.
Now, another dip attacking 1856.00 is stopping short of extending down. Stopping short as much in terms of price, as in terms of time. Entering the final hour under prior lows would have been bearish. Trying, and failing, is not.
Not bearish doesn’t equal bullish. But the balance of the session can attack the upper-end of just this afternoon’s range and still be a substantial rally-like bounce. In fact, the latest reaction up is already attacking 1865.00.
It’s too late to signal a substantial resumption of the recovery. And resuming the decline should be obvious through 3:10-3:20 if it’s in-play.
Daily Spot…
A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.
Eurodollar Mar Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Fulfilling the pattern’s minimum objective at Tuesday’s new high close relieved the pattern of any higher requirements. That didn’t qualify as signaling a reversal, but price did react down Wednesday, testing its 1.1200 pullback limit.
Gold Feb Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Overnight weakness was eventually recovered Wednesday, but the 1203.00 target wasn’t met. Its delay does suggest it might be probed, but closing above it would still need a second consecutive higher close to confirm any higher objective in-play.
Silver Mar Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Overnight weakness was recovered essentially to unchanged Wednesday, but still not probing a fresh high that the pattern suggests will develop before a durable downleg.
30-year Treasury Mar Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
A test of the 165-08/165-12 pullback limit’s lower-end Wednesday resolved up. And up, and up. New highs were probed aggressively up to 167-03 as the rally remained entirely intact.
Crude Oil Mar Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
The downleg targeting new lows is in its denial stage, as choppiness expands upon testing the prior low. A two-handle surge intraday was erased entirely, still likely to extend down.
Natural Gas Mar Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Gapping down under 2.07 Wednesday and extending to test 2.02 was the opposite of initial strength which would have signaled a rally. Thursday’s EIA report isn’t being greeted from a position of strength, but also not from weakness that might require a negative reaction or undermine a favorable reaction.
Look ahead: Economic Calendar – for Thu Feb 11, 2016
A midday look ahead in preparation for economic reports and events scheduled for the next trading day.
Highlights: Fed Chair Yellen completes her Humphrey Hawkins testimony Thursday in the Senate. Often, the market will discount any reaction it had the day before. But that effect is short-lived once the embargo is lifted on her opening remarks.
Jobless Claims
8:30 AM ET
Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index
9:45 AM ET
**Janet Yellen Speaks
10:00 AM ET
EIA Natural Gas Report
10:30 AM ET
*30-Yr Bond Auction
1:00 PM ET
Fed Balance Sheet
4:30 PM ET
Money Supply
4:30 PM ET
Afternoon Bias
| WED afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 1873.50 | 1867.75 |
| …would target | 1878.25 | 1872.75 |
| Bias-down: under | 1861.75 | 1856.50 |
| …would target | 1856.00 | 1850.50 |
| Signal status: LATE NO-BIAS, TESTED BIAS-UP SIGNAL | FAQ | |
| INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 | ||
1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.