S&P
Morning Bias
| WED morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 1911.50 | 1904.50 |
| …would target | 1917.75 | 1910.75 |
| Bias-down: under | 1897.75 | 1890.75 |
| …would target | 1892.50 | 1885.50 |
| Signal status: BIAS-DOWN, BIAS-DOWN TARGET EXCEEDED, TESTED BOTH BIAS-UP PARAMETERS | FAQ | |
| INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 | ||
1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
The First Trade… Everyone’s a winner.
Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.
CHARTROOM LINK
(pre-open Market Tour begins at 8:55 ET)
Through the prior close…
Gapping down Tuesday under Monday’s lows inverted the traction gained by Monday’s late buyers. The lowest objective was met under 1890.00, triggering a sharp reversal up to attack the 1900.00 resistance. Potential was left outstanding to 1886.00.
Overnight action’s new info…
The slide resumed and soon tested the outstanding 1886.00 objective by 2 ticks. And held. Tuesday’s 1895.00 cash session close was recovered by midnight. Rallying through Europe’s opens attacked 1909.00. Now a pullback to 1894.00 is trying to recover.
If, then…
Another example of the market satisfying all influences, no matter their divergence. I described the two currently relevant influences in yesterday’s post-market Wrap. First, yesterday’s last bounce had stopped pessimistically short of testing its last relative high, which is potentially bullish from a contrarian perspective. Second, that bounce had originated from only piercing the decline’s target range — the slide had stopped optimistically short of probing the entire objective, which is potentially bearish. Overnight action satisfied both. So, is momentum reversing up, or has the overnight recovery only traded one prior high’s resistance for another (1911.00 from yesterday morning’s bias environment). I would tend to be bullish here since testing the decline’s objective was responsive both yesterday and overnight. So long as the open doesn’t hold a relevant prior’s test, the window is open for a rally. Otherwise, retesting overnight lows could find no support remains.
First Trade…
Exiting the open at 9:45 under 1901.50 would be unlikely to trigger the 1904.50 bias-up signal at 10:15. Exiting the open above 1906.25 would be likely to trigger bias-up.
Post-market Wrap (recording & summary)
Tuesday’s probe under 1890.00 proved deep enough. For Tuesday. Having stopped short of recovering the last downleg’s 1899.00-1900.00 origin, the late bounce was not sponsored by strong hands.
The last downleg’s 1899.00-1900.00 origin wasn’t even touched during the late bounce. That’s pessimism, which can be bullish from a contrarian perspective.
Wednesday’s first trending attempt is vulnerable to being a false break that reverses more substantially in the opposite direction — especially if the first break is being reversed already during the opening 15 minutes of volatility.
Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here.
Monitor overnight Globex trading in the chaRTroom here.
Pre-close View… Uncle?
Targets being tested.
Maintaining the decline had potential to test 1886.00. Just probing under 1890.00 could have started ending the slide, especially considering the timing.
1890.00 was probed by 1 points during the 3:10-3:20 timing window. That doesn’t make one outcome likelier than another. But the probe had retraced back above prior highs when the window closed.
Fresh lows would have resumed the decline. They were attacked, but that has reacted up to 1897.00. It’s too late for a short-squeeze to be signaled, but gravitating higher into the close is now likely.
Daily Spot…
A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.
Eurodollar Mar Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Gapping up Tuesday held 1.9050 resistance whose recovery would launch a new rally leg. It reacted down to attack 1.090, whose break would resume the decline.
Gold Feb Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Fresh highs Tuesday touched the 1131.50 target and reversed back down into negative territory. No second consecutive higher close confirmed higher targets are in-play. But the trend hasn’t reversed down, and closing only slightly lower Tuesday requires closing under 1114.00 to launch a new downleg.
Silver Mar Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Monday’s test of 14.35-14.40 resistance wasn’t rejected then, and wasn’t rejected Tuesday, but still hasn’t extended higher to launch a new rally leg.
30-year Treasury Mar Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
The 162-26 target was met early Tuesday, which now allows room down to 160-16 before starting to signal the trend reversing down — probably sharply.
Crude Oil Mar Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Monday’s gap down under the 32.50 pullback limit wasn’t recovered at Tuesday’s open, probing lower lows down to 29.80. A bounce could test 31.65 while still maintaining the downside momentum.
Natural Gas Mar Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Monday’s reaction down had been required by Friday’s gap up. Extending down deeper overnight was not required, let alone extending under the recent range’s prior lows. This is not a pattern that recovers durably, even if it tries recovering immediately.