S&P
Market Wrap (recording & summary)
Wednesday night’s sideways range barely threatened to reverse up. Its last bounce to 2935.00 had reversed under 2930.75 sell signal and through the 2928.00 opening print, on the way to renewing its bias-down signal and meeting its 2914.25 renewed bias-down target. That took two hours, including the pre-open high. It took 90 minutes to retrace the pre-open high by noon.
That’s a lot of volatility. Buying and selling pressure don’t offset each other, they expend themselves. Similar to Tuesday morning’s surge, although not required, the afternoon ranged narrowly. Perhaps Thursday afternoon’s ranging was due to more pre-earnings anxiousness, with AMZN and INTC reporting post-close.
Thursday afternoon’s range broke lower, but not until coming to within 3 minutes of the cash session close, which got to 2928.00. That extended another 2 points when INTC missed and guided down, reacting down sharply and erasing AMZN’s initial knee-jerk reaction up.
The second half of quarterly earnings is underway, and tends to be different from the first half. Probing fresh highs remains likely, but is getting less likely to be maintained.
Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here.
Monitor overnight Globex trading in the chaRTroom here.
Daily Spot…
A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.
Eurodollar Jun Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Having confirmed Tuesday’s breakout, at least an eventual third lower close is now required before any recovery can be credible for extending. Already probing fresh lows before Thursday’s open, its gap down only recovered to fill the gap back up to Wednesday’s close, already fulfilling the objective. But the trend remains down so long as 1.1235 holds bounces.
Gold Jun Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Extending higher Thursday to attack 1285.00 was retraced almost entirely back down to the 1278.50 buy signal that was still being tested at Wednesday’s close. Closing above Thursday’s high Friday would seal a bottom.
Silver May Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Gapping down Thursday back under the 14.88 buy signal was recovered to attack 15.00 but settled back at 14.88. A second consecutive higher close would have been bullish, but would still be credible Friday.
30-year Treasury Jun Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Wednesday’s probe above 147-04 didn’t extend higher before dipping back down to attack the 146-30 sell signal. Which didn’t trigger. But any lower low would still be credible for extending down into the weekend.
Crude Oil Jun Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Testing the 65.55 pullback limit overnight had bounced to attack 66.30. But it was all retraced to end back down at the pullback limit, with a confirmed breakout still requiring at least an eventual higher close — but no assurance of avoiding a deeper pullback first.
Natural Gas May Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
[Rolling coverage forward to from May to Jun TOMORROW]… Wednesday’s pattern avoided greeting Thursday’s EIA from a position of weakness. And its reaction was up, testing the 2.50 buy signal by 2 cents. The signal held, but a second consecutive higher close on Friday would signal a recovery underway.
Mid-day Update… Step one: Stop falling.
Is the pullback done?
This morning’s break from the overnight sideways range made up for lost time. Sliding from its 2929.00 open extended through its bias-down signal to test its bias-down target down to 2919.25. 
All during the first 15 minutes.
Reacting up touched the morning’s 2927.75 bias-down signal as resistance, and then plunged again. Bias-down renewed, and the 2914.25 renewed bias-down target was touched at the low. All during the first hour.
Rallying almost straight up to noon touched 2935.00. That’s where the pre-open slide had originated, having held the last overnight bounce. And so far, 2935.00 has held this morning’s bounce, too.
Now this afternoon’s no-bias environment is holding the bounce. Extending higher anyway could have extended to test its 2938.25 bias-up signal without requiring any retracement. And now that the bias environment is lapsing, its resistance is diminished.
Nothing requires extending higher today, or at all, but not yet reversing down under 2930.00 is likely to extend higher today — if not also tomorrow morning.
Look ahead: Economic Calendar – for Fri Apr 26, 2019
A midday look ahead in preparation for economic reports and events scheduled for the next trading day.
Highlights: Friday’s GDP is high-profile, but not reliably influential to price action. Nevertheless, any noticeable price reaction would likely be duplicated by the post-open Consumer Sentiment.
GDP
8:30 AM ET
*Consumer Sentiment
10:00 AM ET
Baker-Hughes Rig Count
1:00 PM ET
Afternoon Bias
| THU afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2936.25 | 2938.25 |
| …would target | 2943.00 | 2945.00 |
| Bias-down: under | 2927.50 | 2929.50 |
| …would target | 2922.00 | 2924.00 |
| Signal status: NO-BIAS, BIAS-DOWN SIGNAL TESTED | . | |
| BIAS VIDEOS… INTRO // EXAMPLE | ||
1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.