S&P
Afternoon Bias
| THU afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 1920.50 | 1913.25 |
| …would target | 1928.25 | 1921.00 |
| Bias-down: under | 1902.75 | 1895.50 |
| …would target | 1895.25 | 1888.00 |
| Signal status: LATE BIAS-UP | FAQ | |
| INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 | ||
1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Post-open Review… Now THAT’S a range.
Wide overnight range dwarfed by the first hour.
Ultimately, the pre-open recovery opened back at the 1891.75 bias-up signal. It had been probed temporarily overnight, and the interim dip had tested the 1875.00 bias-down target.
The overnight low was retested. The first half-hour plunged to fresh lows at 1871.00. Probing under just 1881.00 during late-afternoon would have found an air pocket. But this was early enough to attract counter-trend sponsorship. At least, the 20-point plunge was deep enough to have satisfied its sponsorship.
The 1880.25 bias-down signal was recovered in time to invoke the grace period. During that time, the 1891.75 bias-up signal was exceeded. Then the 1899.25 bias-up target was exceeded. And the potential for testing “higher prior lows” around 1910.00 has been fulfilled… to within 3 ticks of 1912.00.
Overbought RSIs require the high’s retest, presumably to actually touch 1912.00, possibly probing it by 1 point. Oversold RSIs at the low require its eventual retest, too — a great example why this is not a timing tool. But until fresh post-open highs were to print, the decline is unlikely to resume today.
Pre-market Tour (recording & summary)
Attacking the 1874.50 overnight low to within 1 tick is unlikely to form a durable bottom. But it has produced a big bounce. The 1897.75 overnight high is being attacked now to within 3 points. Just avoiding another dip into the 1881.00-1885.00 range would be bullish, potentially all the way up to the 1910.00 area.
Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the pre-market Tour recording here.
The First Trade… Volatile.
Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.
CHARTROOM LINK <<==click here
(pre-open Market Tour begins at 8:55 ET)
Through the prior close…
Gapping up Wednesday remained aloft through the open, not inverting the overnight rally. That didn’t prevent reversing down just minutes later. The reversal extended down relentlessly and substantially, turning a test of 1946.50 into a plunge to 1878.00. That’s new lows, which probed under Monday’s 1892.50 prior low, which had stopped short of its 1881.00 target. Actively bearish WedEX triggered.
Overnight action’s new info…
China’s renewed weakness triggered a brief dip to new lows at 1874.50. it was recovered as quickly as it had developed, and continued improving. Europe’s opens were greeted optimistically attacking 1898.00. That was reversed back down to down to within 1 tick of 1874.50, before bouncing back to 1891.00..
If, then…
There’s nothing predictive about ranging choppily overnight without extending the decline. Ranging choppily intraday wouldn’t be predictive, either. The pattern remains vulnerable to extending down sharply, with the wild card of last-minute expiration jockeying.
First Trade…
Exiting the open at 9:45 above 1885.00 would be unlikely to trigger the 1880.25 bias-down signal at 10:15. Exiting the open above 1993.50 would be likely to trigger the 1891.75 bias-up signal.
Morning Bias
| THU morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 1898.75 | 1891.75 |
| …would target | 1906.00 | 1899.25 |
| Bias-down: under | 1887.00 | 1880.25 |
| …would target | 1882.00 | 1875.00 |
| Signal status: TESTED BOTH BIAS-DOWN PARAMETERS, LATE INVALIDATION | FAQ | |
| INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 | ||
1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.