S&P
Market Wrap (recording & summary)
Wednesday’s record-setting rally had tried resuming overnight. Its 22-point down to 2455.50 was recovered to probe a fresh high up to 2481.50. 
But that failed, and Thursday’s open was greeted by a bounce from 2422.50. The post-open recovery attempt failed, too, getting up to only 2445.00 before eventually resolved down to attack the afternoon’s lowest target at 2396.00.
That ended the correction of Wednesday’s rally, as anything lower would have returned to new lows. The reward for ending the correction was to probe fresh session highs above 2445.00. That was doubled, attacking 2499.00 through the futures close.
The 9-day series heading toward an Up/Down-Crash setup is now invalidated by Thursday’s second consecutive up-session. Which doesn’t require trending up. But resuming and extending the rally Friday would next target 2525.00 and potentially 2606.00. Resuming the decline anyway would be unlikely from opening only slightly weaker Friday.
Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here.
Monitor overnight Globex trading in the chaRTroom here.
Daily Spot…
A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.
Eurodollar Mar Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Wednesday’s extended dip back under a week of prior lows was rejected by Thursday’s open gapping back up above those lows to 1.1450. Extending higher closed above the 1.1500 buy signal, now needing a second consecutive higher close Friday to confirm.
Gold Feb Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Gapping back down Thursday within Wednesday’s range doesn’t invalidate the ongoing rally, but it does add a degree of urgency to not only meeting the 1284.00 target but also exceeding it.
Silver Mar Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Gapping up and probing higher Thursday helps to confirm Wednesday’s breakout, which would require an eventual third higher close.
30-year Treasury Mar Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
There was only a little more room for weakness under Wednesday’s low, which overnight action tested before Thursday’s gap up to and through the 145-08 buy signal. A second consecutive higher close Friday would resume the rally.
Crude Oil Feb Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Wednesday’s surge wasn’t going to trigger a reversal signal, but a dip down to 44.15 or 43.25 could start forming a reversal setup. Thursday’s low came within 10-15 cents of the pullback target’s upper-end.
Natural Gas Feb Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Wednesday’s recovery from having fulfilled the 3.27 target (basis Feb, 3.33 basis Jan) was extended Thursday, which helps to confirm the target does end the decline, and that a bottom can now begin forming.
Mid-day Update… Struggling to hold.
PROGRAMMING NOTE: I AM AWAY FROM THE SCREENS UNTIL THE FINAL HOUR.
The overnight slide from 2481.50 down to 2422.50 was probed by another 10 points down to 2412.50. That was during the open, which had initially tried rallying through 2445.00. The dip to 2412.50 was recovered to attack 2445.00, and its retest has reacted down again.
Now this afternoon’s 2423.00 bias-down signal has triggered late, targeting 2412.75. Any lower would next target 2406.00, and under 2403.00 would target 2496.00. It’s a series of dominoes that leads either to ending a correction of yesterday’s rally, or else to its complete retracement (probably).
Meanwhile, about that first domino…
All of the overlapping legs from this morning and through the noon hour have formed a circular argument of false starts. The bias environment exit’s last surge back up to 2445.00 should be the last rally effort, so the decline should be coming shortly. But delaying it through the afternoon bias environment could resolve up out of relief.
Look ahead: Economic Calendar – for Fri Dec 28, 2018
A midday look ahead in preparation for economic reports and events scheduled for the next trading day.
Highlights: None of Friday’s reports is reliable for influencing price action, but the Retail report is high-profile. Regardless, any noticeable reaction to a pre-open report is likely to be duplicated by a post-open report.
International Trade in Goods
8:30 AM ET
Retail Inventories [Advance]
8:30 AM ET
Wholesale Inventories [Advance]
8:30 AM ET
Pending Home Sales Index
10:00 AM ET
Baker-Hughes Rig Count
1:00 PM ET
Afternoon Bias
| THU afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2446.25 | 2446.00 |
| …would target | 2455.00 | 2454.75 |
| Bias-down: under | 2423.50 | 2423.00 |
| …would target | 2413.25 | 2412.75 |
| Signal status: LATE BIAS-DOWN | . | |
| BIAS VIDEOS… INTRO // EXAMPLE | ||
1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.