S&P
Morning Bias
| MON morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2065.25 | 2057.00 |
| …would target | 2071.00 | 2063.25 |
| Bias-down: under | 2054.75 | 2047.00 |
| …would target | 2049.50 | 2041.50 |
| Signal status: BIAS-DOWN, BIAS-DOWN TARGET EXCEEDED | FAQ | |
| INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 | ||
1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Daily Spot…
A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.
Eurodollar Dec Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Thursday’s gap up didn’t reject Wednesday’s gap down, and the pullback targeting 1.0750-1.0785 remains intact.
Gold Feb Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Gapping up Thursday extended to close above 1074.00to suggest the reaction down had ended. But closing above 1077.70 is still needed to reverse the trend back up..
Silver Mar Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Already having dipped relatively shallowly Wednesday, Thursday’s strength extended to close at a fresh high that suggests a new upleg is underway if confirmed by a second consecutive higher close.
30-year Treasury Jan Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Wednesday’s bounce from fresh lows extended just higher enough Thursday to fill the gap back to Tuesday’s close. Its attraction above had prevented Wednesday’s drop from extending, so neutralizing its attraction allows the decline to resume.
Crude Oil Jan Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Thursday’s gap up extended higher intraday to confirm Wednesday’s close above the 37.70-37.90 buy signal.
Natural Gas Jan Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Already probing fresh recovery highs overnight, Thursday’s EIA report was greeted from a position of strength.
Post-market Wrap (recording & summary)
What took a half-day to accomplish was erased within a half-hour.
Actually, it only took an hour — not counting the choppy morning bias environment. It started lapsing at 2054.00 where the session had opened. And it started trending until fulfilling all the upside potential to within 1 tick of 2060.00.
The last half-hour retraced it all back to 2054.00 within 3 minutes of the cash session close. The next 15 minutes extended down through the morning’s 2050.75 post-open low, attacking the 2049.00 overnight low to within 2 ticks.
The late plunge was spectacular, but otherwise meaningless. On a normal day, suddenly moving so steeply would be irrelevant, especially if only back within the range. Thursday is already holiday-shortened, and its morning low wasn’t probed until after the cash session close.
None of which requires this week’s trending to resume next week. But starting the week by reacting down would have a better chance at recovering. Meanwhile…
Have a wonderful holiday weekend — see you Sunday night!
Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here:
https://roddavid10.mitel-nhwc.com/join/zvvwmws
Look ahead: Economic Calendar – for Fri, Dec 25, 2015
A midday look ahead in preparation for economic reports and events scheduled for the next trading day.
Highlights: Markets closed for Christmas. Ho-ho-ho!
Globex re-opens Sunday 6:00 PM ET
Pre-close View… Slow drift.
Morning consolidation resolving up. While it still can.
This morning’s reaction down from 2057.00 to 2051.00 ended the bias environment ranging narrowly around the 2054.00 open. Now the market is re-focused on the business at hand as the early close looms.
Volume is evaporating, so no counter-trend sponsorship is stirring, all through the house. Yesterday’s overbought RSIs are now neutralized. The 2058.00-2060.00 objective has been pierced.
There is no afternoon bias parameter or signal. We will conduct a brief post-market Wrap. If I don’t see you there, have a wonderful holiday weekend — the chaRTroom will re-open Sunday night for Globex.