S&P
Pre-close View… No sequel.
Today’s rally didn’t gain its own traction.
Yesterday’s buyers gained traction for their efforts by exiting the bias environment above the noon hour’s high, and for then extending to fresh highs through the 3:10-3:20 timing window. Their reward was to control this morning’s bias environment by probing higher.
They got their reward, but the probing continued. Fresh highs during the noon hour fulfilled the next higher objective at 2053.00. Potential to 2058.00-2060.00 was attacked to within 1 tick during the afternoon’s bias environment.
Buyers didn’t gain traction today, as only the bias environment exit trended. Nevertheless, overbought RSIs at the 2057.75 high requires a retest. An interim pullback to 2051.25 is possible, leaving the retest outstanding. Testing it first would have room up to 2060.00 before the pullback to 2051.25 would be an issue again.
Daily Spot…
A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.
Eurodollar Dec Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Filling the gap back to last Wednesday’s close wasn’t rejected immediately, Tuesday, but that delay was compensated by gapping down Wednesday to test 1.0900. The 1.0750-1.0785. pullback target remains in-play.
Gold Feb Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Tuesday’s closing test of the 1074.00 pullback limit wasn’t recovered Wednesday, as price broke lower into the morning. Now closing above 1077.70 is needed to resume the rally.
Silver Mar Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Narrow ranging Tuesday didn’t undermine upward momentum, but neither did it refuel the upward momentum, which could benefit from dipping to trap shorts.
30-year Treasury Jan Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Attacking the 154-30 sell signal Tuesday resolved lower Wednesday to test the 153-30 prior low. Even in the most bullish scenario, a bounce back to 154-30 can’t be discounted before extending down more substantially.
Crude Oil Jan Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Gapping up slightly and firming intraday tested the 36.79-36.85 buy signals that had held their test last Friday.
Natural Gas Jan Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Tuesday’s pullback had stopped short of exploiting all of its room down to 1.85, but the rally resumed anyway on Wednesday, extending to test 1.91. A second consecutive higher close Thursday would confirm a new upleg has been launched.
Look ahead: Economic Calendar – for Thu, Dec 24, 2015
A midday look ahead in preparation for economic reports and events scheduled for the next trading day.
Highlights: Thursday’s early close is already lightly attended. Any surprising report should have only a brief reaction.
Jobless Claims
8:30 AM ET
Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index
9:45 AM ET
EIA Natural Gas Report
10:30 AM ET
NYSE Early Close
1:00 PM ET
Globex Early Close
1:15 PM ET
Afternoon Bias
| WED afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2059.25 | 2050.00 |
| …would target | 2064.25 | 2055.00 |
| Bias-down: under | 2052.25 | 2043.00 |
| …would target | 2047.25 | 2038.00 |
| Signal status: noN-BIAS, TESTED BIAS-UP SIGNAL | FAQ | |
| INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 | ||
1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Post-open Review… Holding up, but holding out.
Gap up maintained, but not necessarily extending.
The opening print was shared by the 2043.00 bias-up target. The opening 15 minutes of volatility ranged faithfully around 2043.00. Congestion there makes trending away difficult, at least the first time. Probing up to 2047.25 has been retraced back down to 2043.00.
Halfway to two-thirds through the opening 15 minutes of volatility didn’t retrace or reject the gap up. Dipping any later would likely recover, probably from 2038.00. No relevant level’s test during the opening 15 minutes of volatility wasn’t maintained, so trending up remains possible.
There’s no requirement to extend higher. But the path of least resistance remains up. Extending higher would next target 2048.00, with potential to 2053.00 and 2058.00-2060.00.