S&P
Post-market Wrap (recording & summary)
Monday afternoon bounce to its 2088.00 resistance had expended as much buying pressure as was possible without gaining traction for the effort. Entering the final hour any higher would have resumed the rally, but 2088.00 pushed back to make 2079.00 likely.
Starting that downleg from so high and so late made it difficult to continue attracting new sellers at 2079.00 so near the close. So the last half-hour bounced from 2079.00.
Rallying was likely to resume Monday. If not at the open, then through the close. And if not through the close, then by proxy of gapping up at Tuesday’s open. Monday’s late bounce still had time to extend above 2084.50 but didn’t. Its reaction down did hold 1079.00. Gapping up Tuesday to and through 2086.00-2088.00 is very likely if the rally has resumed anyway.
Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here:
https://roddavid10.mitel-nhwc.com/join/wzjhyfh
I’ve heard nothing bad about the experience using Omnijoin overnight to monitor Globex action. Here are some tips from customer support today:
o If you’re using an app, be sure to click on “V6” not “V7”.
o Customer support is open 8:30am-8:00pm ET at 858-637-3414.
o Report any difficulties you encounter.
Log in by clicking here.
Pre-close View… Maxxed out buyers, spaced out sellers.
Bounce bumped its head before falling over.
Avoiding the attraction below to 2079.00 was possible if the bias environment exit and final hour’s entry were above 2086.00 and 2088.00.
2086.00 was probed up to 2088.00, but no higher. Back under 2084.50 has put 2079.00 back into play. This morning’s 2080.25 low is being attacked now to within 1 tick.
Testing 2079.00 earlier from lower would have had plenty of time to hold and to recover. There was plenty of time to attract counter-trend sponsorship, and the last downleg had just expended a lot of energy.
The effect may not be different now testing 2079.00 later from higher. It’s a little late to attract new sponsorship, and another downleg has recently played out.
Testing 2079.00 still isn’t a requirement. But having failed this afternoon’s bounce, a fresh low is very likely.
Daily Spot…
A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.
Eurodollar Dec Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Trading flat-to-lower Monday wasn’t really lower, and certainly didn’t extend down. Any initial strength Tuesday would be credible for extending higher intraday.
Gold Feb Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Friday’s break under its Descending Triangle had not extended down intraday, and it was retraced Monday. Friday’s opening gap under all prior lows still requires being filled, but now the origin of that retest suggests that a bottom will form from it.
Silver Mar Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Monday’s narrow ranging reflected its prior week’s gap down having been filled already to neutralize its attraction below. Perhaps it also reflects that the any delay to recovering is from waiting for Gold to form a bottom.
30-year Treasury Dec Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Flat-to-flatter ranging ranged narrowly Monday, too high to stretch the rubber band above 156-00 for snapping back down, and seemingly not even contemplating dipping through the 154-10 sell signal.
Crude Oil Jan Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Resuming or extending the rally could be dismissed Friday for the thinner participation, but there isn’t much excuse for the basing pattern not yet to have broken higher.
Natural Gas Jan Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Friday’s gap down wasn’t rejected Monday as price ranged narrowly around it intraday.
Mid-day Update… Once more, or done?
Not yet too late to be scraping the lows.
There was no middle ground. Exiting the bias environment under 2088.00 meant exiting the bias environment at new lows. So, new lows were probed down to 2080.25 just before noon. The noon hour ranged narrowly.
The next lower objective has been met structurally, by retesting the 2082.25 overnight low. The next lower price objective is 2079.00. It’s in-play, unless the bias environment were exited above 2086.00 and 2088.00.
And now 2086.00 is being pierced. But not yet up to 2088.00.
Back under 2084.50 and 2082.75 would be likely also to test 2079.00. Its test isn’t required, and can be avoided altogether. But delaying its test until too late probably wouldn’t avoid a deeper pullback.
Look ahead: Economic Calendar – for Tue Dec 1, 2015
A midday look ahead in preparation for economic reports and events scheduled for the next trading day.
Highlights: Tuesday’s post-open PMI report is more influential than it is high-profile. It’s announced simulatneously with Construction spending, whch can leverage the reaction to each. The noon hour’s Fed speaker keeps market participants on edge at a time when they aren’t usually.
Gallup US ECI
8:30 AM ET
Redbook
8:55 AM ET
PMI Manufacturing Index
9:45 AM ET
*ISM Mfg Index
10:00 AM ET
Construction Spending
10:00 AM ET
4-Week Bill Auction
11:30 AM ET
*Charles Evans Speaks
12:45 PM ET