S&P
Morning Bias
| WED morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2090.50 | 2088.00 |
| …would target | 2095.50 | 2093.00 |
| Bias-down: under | 2082.25 | 2079.75 |
| …would target | 2075.00 | 2072.50 |
| Signal status: noN-BIAS, TESTED BIAS-UP SIGNAL | FAQ | |
| INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 | ||
1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Post-market Wrap (recording & summary)
Recovering the overnight dive was not surprising. Extending down to lower lows first was possible, and at one point it was probable, but ultimately not surprising that it didn’t extend down. Recovering, and recovering so much — probing well into positive territory — not that was surprising.
But not impressive.
Was the window for a pre-holiday corrective dip leveraged by the Turkey-Russia incident, or was it hijacked? The former seems to have run its course a little too quickly to be done. And the latter would keep the door open for another dive.
Volume will start evaporating exponentially at noon Wednesday. That can help to prevent another dive from extending too deeply or for too long to recover anytime soon. Greeting Wednesday’s open already trending above prior highs would suggest instead that the pullback had ended.
Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here:
https://roddavid10.mitel-nhwc.com/join/yptvvfy
This evening, please try logging into the chaRTroom to help test this replacement, and let me know your experience:
OmniJoin (by Brother)
Pre-close View… What’s the last thing you’d expect?
Big rally, deep correction, complete recovery… time to rest?
Low-volume environments are difficult to generate sponsorship for trending. They’re also difficult to generate counter-trend sponsorship. Both rules will apply more so tomorrow than today. But anticipating them may be what prevented extending down this morning.
It’s just a little optimistic — buying from so low so quickly and so much for so long. Not that the news should have been taken any more seriously than it was. It wasn’t earnings or liquidity related, so its effect was exacerbated. But the timing and corrective bias allowed more selling.
Probing fresh highs through the 3;10-3:20 timing window today (about to begin) could push the rally into Wednesday and Friday. Otherwise, just ranging flat, let alone lower, could prevent a Friday rally.
Daily Spot…
A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.
Eurodollar Sep Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Gapping up Tuesday left no unfinished business below since Monday’s close was within the prior range. Extending higher Wednesday would help to confirm a bottom is still forming.
Gold Dec Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Tuesday’s gap up isn’t enough to undermine the downward momentum, which requires closing above 1082.00.
Silver Dec Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Monday’s gap down under all prior lows to 13.97 requires being retested as support before a rally would be credible. So, Tuesday’s gap up allows filling Monday’s gap to be recovered into a rally leg.
30-year Treasury Dec Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Initially extending Monday’s recovery made the rally doubly dependent on closing higher Tuesday to confirm the breakout is valid. Reacting back down into negative territory undermines the recovery.
Crude Oil Jan Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Reacting up Tuesday on the Russian fighter jet downing is as valid as any other surge for forming a bottom, so long as it is confirmed by a second consecutive gain — if not also a surge — Wednesday.
Natural Gas Nov Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Gapping down Tuesday to retest Friday’s low and recovering back to unchanged can now begin to form a bottom, but only so long as any probe of fresh lows intraday is recovered to close positive. Any initial strength Wednesday would be credible for extending higher intraday.
Look ahead: Economic Calendar – for DayMonNo, 2015
A midday look ahead in preparation for economic reports and events scheduled for the next trading day.
Highlights: The holiday-shortened week sees Wednesday doubling-up on many reports. Several are high-profile, but only two have a reliable track record of influencing price action. The first is pre-open Durable Goods. Second is the post-open Consumer Sentiment, which comes on the heels of Thursday’s big miss in Consumer Confidence. As an aside, keep in mind that trending in reaction to an early report is often duplicated in reaction to later reports. Also note that volume will start to evaporate after the noon hour, if not before, with holiday travel taking precedence for many participants.
MBA Mortgage Applications
7:00 AM ET
*Durable Goods Orders
8:30 AM ET
Jobless Claims
8:30 AM ET
Personal Income and Outlays
8:30 AM ET
FHFA House Price Index
9:00 AM ET
PMI Services Flash
9:45 AM ET
Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index
9:45 AM ET
New Home Sales
10:00 AM ET
*Consumer Sentiment
10:00 AM ET
EIA Petroleum Status Report
10:30 AM ET
2-Yr FRN Note Auction
11:30 AM ET
7-Yr Note Auction
11:30 AM ET
EIA Natural Gas Report
12:00 PM ET
5-Yr Note Auction
1:00 PM ET