S&P
We’re all dying to know.
Globex trading will resume at 6:00pm ET. Did last week’s pullback shed enough weight for another lift-off? Will more buyers be sought at lower levels? The answer might not be available immediately, but you can monitor overnight developments by clicking here.
Morning Bias
| MON morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2104.25 | 2098.25 |
| …would target | 2109.75 | 2104.00 |
| Bias-down: under | 2093.00 | 2087.25 |
| …would target | 2088.25 | 2082.25 |
| Signal status: BIAS-DOWN, BIAS-DOWN TARGET EXCEEDED | FAQ | |
| INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 | ||
1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Post-market Wrap (recording & summary)
Ultimately, Friday’s session ended while still testing 2088.00. Its recovery would have told us to be long for the start of a big ride to new highs. Closing under 2088.00 would have told us to expect a dip to the 2070.00 area, first. Still overlapping it at the close has instead forced us to be reactionary instead of proactive. If the rally wants to resume without delay, then Monday will gap up above Thursday’s highs. Otherwise, fresh lows come first.
Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here:
https://roddavid10.mitel-nhwc.com/join/bwhfvfx
We’ll discuss more about the bigger picture and review stock requests at this weekend’s Saturday Review. I’ll send its link overnight.
Pre-close View… Is there time for another dip?
Pressure of weekend illiquidity giving market the bends.
The open’s failure to recover 2088.00 told us that buyers weren’t retaking control. That’s didn’t prevent a bounce from testing the morning’s 2091.50 bias-down signal as resistance.
The noon hour didn’t extend down. It only touched the afternoon’s 2080.50 bias-down signal. That was recovered up to 2093.75 — back above 2088.00 where another timing window could recover it.
But the afternoon’s bias environment has begun lapsing back at 2088.00. And the bias environment’s 2084.50 low is being attacked. This NOT recovering 2088.00, again. And that’s despite having probed above it, again.
Any lower would all but ensure extending down to 2080.50. And below there could test the 2070.00 area today. Perhaps the last chance to avoid extending down is to enter the final hour above 2088.00, although even that would be suspicious at this stage.
Daily Spot… More of the same. A lot of it.
A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.
Eurodollar Sep Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
The potential for a bottom was broadsided Friday by the Employment Situation report. There was no unfinished business below, so extending down anyway and extending down sharply requires a bottom to recover immediately, if at all.
Gold Dec Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Greeting Friday’s Employment Situation report while testing the 1106.50 support reacted down sharply to 1084.50, next targeting 1082.00.
Silver Dec Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
The slide extended Friday in reaction to the Employment Situation report, testing new lows at 14.70. New lows on a Friday tend at least to be probed intraday on Monday.
30-year Treasury Dec Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Fulfilling the minimum 153-25 target Thursday was never rejected before Friday’s Employment Situation report, which triggered an even deeper drop down to 151-25. The new bounce limit is 152-20 and 153-16.
Crude Oil Dec Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Extending down steeply is required of the break under 46.00 to confirm it is valid and targeting new lows. Friday’s gap down tested 44.25 intraday, which is a proxy for ranging narrowly sideways.
Natural Gas Nov Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Closing above 2.31 Thursday needed confirmation from closing above 2.37 Friday, or at least positive, that a new upleg is forming. Friday did probe it, but was still testing it at the close to avoid confirming a recovery.