S&P
Post-market Wrap (recording & summary)
Thursday afternoon’s chop was a predictable product of anxiousness ahead of Friday morning’s Employment Situation report. The influential news is being greeted from a pullback that held 2088.00 as support. This followed two consecutive closes above 2088.00 (and an interim session that avoided it altogether). If 2088.00‘s recovery is relevant, then Friday’s news reaction should resume rallying into the weekend. Otherwise, breaking back under 2088.00 would signal a deeper drop underway — still probably just a detour on the way to temporarily probing new highs.
Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here:
https://roddavid10.mitel-nhwc.com/join/mjzbwwh
This evening, monitor overnight Globex trading in the chaRTroom at:
non-xp ilinc
Morning Bias
| FRI morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2105.50 | 2099.50 |
| …would target | 2111.50 | 2105.50 |
| Bias-down: under | 2097.50 | 2091.50 |
| …would target | 2091.50 | 2085.50 |
| Signal status: BIAS-DOWN, BIAS-DOWN TARGET EXCEEDED | FAQ | |
| INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 | ||
1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Pre-close View… Waiting for a shoe.
Paralyzed ahead of payrolls.
Fulfilling the bounce potential to 2095.00 into the noon hour made it difficult to attract new sponsorship. So, ranging flat-to-higher through the noon hour gained no traction.
The afternoon’s 2097.50 bias-up signal was tested but not triggered. During the morning, that setup would have put into play an offsetting test of the 2089.50 bias-down signal.
The bias environment drifted lower to fulfill 2089.50 anyway. Entering the final hour under the bias environment’s 2090.00 low could be bearish. Otherwise, there’s no requirement for the balance of the session.
Daily Spot… Have turning points arrived?
A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.
Eurodollar Sep Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Gapping up shallowly Thursday didn’t extend higher intraday as it remained within Wednesday’s range. At least a momentary probe under Wednesday’s low would be optimal to forming a bottom, but not necessary.
Gold Dec Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Thursday’s narrow ranging around the 1106.50 objective met Wednesday didn’t extend the decline, or reject it. But now early strength Friday would be credible for extending higher intraday, or else new lows become likely.
Silver Dec Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Probing lower lows Thursday remained under pressure throughout the session. An immediately rally leg would not be credible for extending without first forming a basing pattern.
30-year Treasury Dec Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Fresh lows Thursday fulfilled the minimum 153-25 objective. But the decline’s momentum remains intact so long as bounces don’t recover above ‘higher prior lows” at 154-10/154-14.
Crude Oil Dec Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Probing under 46.00 Thursday didn’t accelerate down, which significantly undermines whether the critical support is actually breaking lower. Wednesday’s “ineffectual optimism” hovering just above 46.00 suggested a valid break would be aggressive. Further delaying lower lows would make another bounce likely targeting 49.15.
Natural Gas Nov Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Gapping up to 2.31 extended intraday to test 2.37 whose recovery would signal a much more significant rally leg finally underway. Closing back under 2.31 would target at least one more fresh low.
Mid-day Update… Not so fast.
Decline absorbed, but not rejected.
No-bias trending often retraces not only the bias signal, but the level printed at 10:15. That was 2095.00, and it was tested into the noon hour.
Flat-to-higher ranging since then tested this afternoon’s 2097.50 bias-up signal. But it didn’t trigger. Now 2095.00 is being probed down to 2093.00.
Could this lack of direction be foreshadowing price action for the rest of the session? Employment Situation report is tomorrow morning, and anxiousness ahead of it often paralyzes trending attempts.
For now, the 2095.00 bias-up signal held its test, leaving room to gravitate down to the 2089.75 bias-down signal.