S&P
Daily Spot…
A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.
Eurodollar Mar Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
No further delay was needed before trending up through 1.1470 since Tuesday had confirmed Monday’s bounce. Wednesday’s open at 1.1470 did trend sharply higher to 1.1530 until FOMC news triggered a drop back down to 1.1470.
Gold Feb Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Retesting 1255.00 overnight didn’t hold this time, and Wednesday morning trended up to fresh highs testing 1262.00. The FOMC reaction plunged down to 1248.00, which is the newly adjusted sell signal.
Silver Mar Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Still testing 14.71 at the open, Wednesday morning firmed to fill the gap back up to the 14.83 high close. Its post-close reaction to FOMC fell back down to 14.71.
30-year Treasury Mar Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Already greeting Wednesday’s FOMC events from a position of strength, the morning trended up to fresh highs. Its reaction extended to probe 145-00, confirming Tuesday’s breakout to require at least an eventual third higher close.
Crude Oil Feb Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Wednesday’s bounce held its limit, while also not confirming Tuesday’s plunge as being a breakout. A bottom and recovery are now free to form, so extending to a fresh low close Thursday would be bearish.
Natural Gas Jan Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Tuesday’s bounce that filled the gap back up to Friday’s 4.81 close had only neutralized attractions above, enabling Wednesday to reverse back down and attack fresh pullback lows. While basing is still likely, it could include dips to 4.33.
Mid-day Update… Only a little inhibited.
Noon hour’s high has corrected.
This morning’s test of 2574.00 was corrected down to yesterday’s 2562.50 late surge. The rally resumed to fresh highs during the noon hour, attacking this afternoon’s 2581.00 bias-up target.
And now this afternoon’s 2573.75 bias-up signal has failed to trigger. This is a no-bias environment, already having tested its bias-up parameters. News is coming — the FOMC policy statement at 2:00 and then the Fed Chair Q&A a half-hour later.
Testing the bias-up parameters would seem overly optimistic, if not having been retraced in time. Resuming the rally is possible, and at least a retest of 2581.00 is likely. Actually, a lot of volatility is likely. The pattern remains vulnerable to resolving down since the open did not form a solid base.
Look ahead: Economic Calendar – for Thu Dec 20, 2018
A midday look ahead in preparation for economic reports and events scheduled for the next trading day.
Highlights: Two high-profile, influential reports Thursday morning are scheduled pre-open and then post-open. And any noticeable reaction to the pre-open report is likely to be duplicated by the post-open report.
Bank of England policy statement
7:00 AM ET
Jobless Claims
8:30 AM ET
*Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook Survey
8:30 AM ET
*Leading Indicators
10:00 AM ET
EIA Natural Gas Report
10:30 AM ET
4-Week Bill Auction
11:30 AM ET
8-Week Bill Auction
11:30 AM ET
5-Yr TIPS Auction
1:00 PM ET
Fed Balance Sheet
4:30 PM ET
Money Supply
4:30 PM ET
Afternoon Bias
| WED afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2571.75 | 2573.75 |
| …would target | 2579.00 | 2581.00 |
| Bias-down: under | 2560.00 | 2562.00 |
| …would target | 2551.00 | 2553.00 |
| Signal status: NO-BIAS, TESTED BOTH BIAS-UP PARAMETERS | . | |
| NEW: BIAS VIDEOS… INTRO // EXAMPLE | ||
1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Post-open Review… Too much, too late.
Post-open surge is productive, for now.
The overnight rally ultimately extended to pierce yesterday’s 2562.50 late surge peak. 
But the last 90 minutes fell suddenly, steeply, and substantially to greet the open at 2547.00-2549.00. The pullback was deep, and it had originated from above yesterday’s late high. This was a new rubber band stretch, and a big potential reward (to retrace the pullback).
In fact, the pullback was retraced and then extended. The 2564.50 bias-up target was exceeded in time to renew the bias-up signal, and its 2572.00 renewed bias-up target was probed.
A reversal attempt under 2569.00 just failed, resolving in a test of 2574.00. Extending the open’s surge could get overly optimistic ahead of this afternoon’s FOMC events, or even in reaction. But this is not from nearly as strong a base as if the open itself had already recovered yesterday’s
late high — which should make the FOMC events all the more fun.