S&P
Look ahead: Economic Calendar – for Wed Dec 19, 2018
A midday look ahead in preparation for economic reports and events scheduled for the next trading day.
Highlights: FOMC policy statements long ago replaced monthly payrolls as the catalyst for the most volatile and opportunity-rich windows. That is only exceeded by the quarterly Fed Chair Q&A, which can offer multiple swings, or else sustained trending.
MBA Mortgage Applications
7:00 AM ET
Current Account
8:30 AM ET
Existing Home Sales
10:00 AM ET
EIA Petroleum Status Report
10:30 AM ET
*FOMC Meeting Announcement
2:00 PM ET
FOMC Forecasts
2:00 PM ET
*Fed Chair Press Conference
2:30 PM ET
Afternoon Bias
| TUE afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2565.50 | 2569.00 |
| …would target | 2571.00 | 2574.50 |
| Bias-down: under | 2554.50 | 2558.00 |
| …would target | 2548.25 | 2551.75 |
| Signal status: LATE NO-BIAS, TESTED BOTH BIAS-UP PARAMETERS | . | |
| NEW: BIAS VIDEOS… INTRO // EXAMPLE | ||
1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Post-open Review… Waiting for reinforcements.
Optimistic open has yet to push higher.
A pre-open surge through 2569.00 had probed fresh overnight highs up to 2574.00, before greeting the open back down at 2569.00. A few post-open points lower reacted up to attack 2578.00.
2578.00 is a 61.8% retracement of yesterday’s high-to-low drop, and its resistance held. Now 2569.00 is being tested again as support.
All of which is taking place in a bias-up environment. Renewed. A reaction down has room down to the 2558.25 bias-up signal as support, but no requirement to test it. Back above 2574.50 could extend up to 2595.50, and still maintain the decline’s momentum.
RSIs don’t reflect any increase in buying pressure, so not actually trending up soon would become very vulnerable to unimpressed sellers pushing price back down.
The First Trade & Pre-open Tour Recording… Hope still springing.
Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.
DAILY SCHEDULE
First, watch the pre-open Tour recording HERE <<==
I AM AWAY FROM THE SCREEN DURING THE FIRST HALF-HOUR
Through the prior close…
Sunday night’s initial 13-point bounce attacked 2617.00, but began breaking lower before Europe’s opens, and kept breaking lower through it. Greeting Monday’s open under Friday’s low at 2593.00 — still within last Monday’s range — suddenly plunged to new lows at 2571.00. Bouncing 35 points probed back into Friday’s range and into positive territory but stopped just ticks short of reversing momentum up. Having only refueled sellers, the decline established a likely target at 2555.00 that was met going into the final hour. The position-squaring window touched 2533.50, but 2555.00 was recovered through the close.
Overnight action’s new info…
Yesterday’s late recovery initially extended up to 2569.00, where China headlines triggered a reaction down to 2553.00. The test of yesterday’s close(s) essentially avoided negative territory, and recovered to attack the earlier 2569.00 high.
If, then… (notes to accompany the Tour recording)
I AM AWAY FROM THE SCREEN DURING THE FIRST HALF-HOUR. Yesterday’s morning’s big bounce and its potential for recovery wasn’t only retraced entirely. It was retraced relentlessly, but not very quickly. The slow descent reflects the ineffectual side of the optimism coin, the flip-side to the morning’s excessively optimistic bounce. Both are bearish from a contrarian perspective, so two of the three important questions are whether Monday’s ultimate low neutralized that bearishness, and if any new bearishness gained traction. The new low close keeps the decline intact, but a lot of calculable selling pressure was met and held — this leg’s 2530.00-2538.00 objective was met down to 2533.50, and then recovered to hold the morning’s 2555.00 target. So, early strength would be credible for a morning bounce. By the way, the third important question to ask is whether any new optimism is joining yesterday’s, and the answer may be yes with last night hovering exclusively in positive territory. Another corrective bounce could test 2595.50 without threatening the decline’s lower objectives at 2530.00 which can be met on the way down to testing 2500.00. I AM AWAY FROM THE SCREEN DURING THE FIRST HALF-HOUR.
First Trade…
[Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 under 2555.00 would be unlikely to trigger the 2558.25 bias-up signal at 10:15. Exiting the open above 2563.00 would be likely to trigger bias-up. Exiting the open above 2566.00 would be likely to exceed the 2564.75 bias-up target at 10:15 to renew the bias-up signal.
Morning Bias
| TUE morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2554.75 | 2558.25 |
| …would target | 2561.25 | 2564.75 |
| Bias-down: under | 2539.50 | 2543.00 |
| …would target | 2531.00 | 2534.50 |
| Signal status: BIAS-UP, BIAS-UP TARGET EXCEEDED | . | |
| NEW: BIAS VIDEOS… INTRO // EXAMPLE | ||
1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.