S&P
Morning Bias
| TUE morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2038.50 | 2031.00 |
| …would target | 2043.75 | 2036.25 |
| Bias-down: under | 2028.00 | 2020.50 |
| …would target | 2021.50 | 2014.00 |
| Signal status: NO-BIAS, TESTED BIAS-DOWN SIGNAL | FAQ | |
| INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 | ||
1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Post-market Wrap (recording & summary)
Fresh session highs were supposed to be the consequence of not extending Monday afternoon’s dip below the morning’s lows. The cash session close did make that happen, barely, piercing the morning’s high by just 1 tick up to 2027.00.
Still, yet another intraday swing was overlapping 2019.50, instead of rejecting its resistance or breaking through it. ts room for noise up to 2031.75 should be tested just by formality.
With or without first probing fresh highs, falling at only a gradual slope wouldn’t be credible for extending down durably. But probing higher aggressively and avoiding a quick rejection would next target 2055.00.
Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here:
https://roddavid10.mitel-nhwc.com/join/mjzrzxs
This evening, monitor overnight Globex trading in the chaRTroom at:
non-xp ilinc
Pre-close View… Time to choose.
The final hour’s arrival invites new sponsorship.
This afternoon’s 2019.50 bias-down signal was touched within 3 minutes of the 1:20 bias timing window. It was touched again at 1:30. So, noN-bias triggered, which usually behaves like no-bias by holding the signal.
And despite probing 3 points lower, the bias environment’s low ultimately recovered 2019.50. It was recovered up to 2022.25. But the bias-down signal has not been rejected. A new rally leg is not underway.
Extending higher would target fresh high. Fresh highs would again be vulnerable to reversing down, more so than to backing-and-filling in an uptrend. A break lower could extend through the close.
Daily Spot…Bonds breaking?
A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.
Eurodollar Sep Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Gapping down under last week’s late lows stretched the rubber band tighter, still having room down to 1.1300 before being required to snap back up, or else to break sharply lower.
Gold Dec Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Despite having held its 1180.00 pullback limit as support Friday, Monday’s open gapped down and extended to test 1170.00. Gapping up Tuesday above 1180.00 would keep in-play the potential to 1195.50.
Silver Dec Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Monday’s gap down to 15.85 support precedes any probe of fresh highs, miking its recovery above 15.95 likely, and likely to launch a new upleg.
30-year Treasury Dec Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Sunday night’s test of the 158-04 sell signal was extended intraday to 157-18 before bouncing. Being a breakout from three consecutive range-bound sessions, a second consecutive lower close Tuesday would confirm the trend had reversed down.
Crude Oil Nov Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Extending higher immediately Monday would have confirmed that Friday’s weak rally had actually rejected the prior two sessions’ “ineffectual pessimism.” Immediately dipping at Monday’s open threatened instead to invalidate Friday’s bounce.
Natural Gas Nov Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Gapping up Monday wasn’t credible for extending higher since Friday’s drop had barely touched the prior low without yet actually probing under it..
Mid-day Update… Target met, and held.
Offsetting test neutralized, and neutralizing.
Holding a test of this morning’s 2018.00 bias-down signal through 10:15 put into play an offsetting test of the 2026.50 bias-up signal.
Absorbing the initial probe of 4 points under 2018.00 didn’t require any greater reward. Neither did absorbing the 6-point dip back down to 2018.00.
However it is that 2026.50 came to be met, its attraction is now neutralized. Combined with filling the gap back to Friday’s close in that area, and with the noon hour beginning, a pullback is now testing 2021.50.
Fresh session highs visiting 2031.50 are likely so long as the afternoon’s bias-down signal doesn’t trigger. Only a temporary visit to 2031.50 is possible, followed by reversing down to sharply into the close. Regardless, there is no unfinished business above in-play.