S&P
Pre-market Tour (recording & summary)
Last night’s slide had consolidated a couple of points either way around this morning’s 1999.50 bias-down target. That consolidation formed a Symmetrical Triangle, which broke higher to 2004.25. Being this morning’s bias-down signal it is also resistance. And its resistance pushed back into the triangle.
Being a Symmetrical Triangle, its initial break is often false, reversing more substantially in the opposite direction. The open is fast-approaching, so that overnight influence might not persist into the cash session. If it does, then the renewed bias-down target is 1994.00. Quickly rejecting the overnight slide could quickly rally back into positive territory.
Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the pre-market Tour recording here:
https://roddavid10.mitel-nhwc.com/join/kfykwfk
The First Trade… Stretching the rubber band.
Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.
CHARTROOM LINK(s)
o Win XP-Friendly entry
o non-xp friendly (ilinc)
(pre-open Market Tour begins at 8:55 ET)
Through the prior close…
Volatility was inhibited Monday by the Columbus Day holiday, which maintained the ongoing ranging around 2006.00-2007.00. But the only attractions were higher, and no sell signals formed. The afternoon had repeatedly peaked at 3 ticks above its 2007.00 resistance. Firming during the final hour eventual surged through the Globex open to touch Friday’s 2014.00 pre-open high.
Overnight action’s new info…
That late surge was in reaction to dovish Fed comments, and eventually retraced entirely back down to 2006.00-2007.00. Europe’s opens triggered a slide testing 1997.00. A consolidation there has broken higher, now testing 2004.25.
If, then…
Thursday afternoon’s bias environment had been resisted up to 1997.00. That’s where the bias environment’s exit triggered a breakout during its late surge that attacked 2009.00. So, 2009.00 is the likely reward for the 1997.00 area holding a test as support. Conducting the test overnight can dilute the reward, but it does represent more sellers having been satisfied. And any sell-off attempt recovered through a relevant timing window can have the effect of a stretched rubber band snapping back up. But that probably depends also on not triggering bias-down this morning.
First Trade…
Exiting the open at 9:45 above 2007.00 would be unlikely to trigger the 2004.25 bias-down signal at 10:15. Exiting the open under 2001.00 would be likelier to trigger bias-down. Exiting the open under 1998.00 would be likely also to exceed the 1999.50 bias-down target at 10:15 to renew the bias-down signal.
Post-market Wrap (recording & summary)
Trending on Monday faced the large hurdle of a closed bond market. Historically, that inhibits risk hedging, which inhibits participation, which inhibits trending. Monday’s session ranged almost as narrowly as Saturday and Sunday.
The final hour tends to leave that behind and look forward to the oncoming influences. Monday’s final hour did probe fresh afternoon highs above 2007.50 to 2010.00, but post-close action has really come alive to probe 3 ticks above its 2012.50 overnight high.
Breaking higher during Monday’s final hour would have given away its weak-handed sponsorship. Even this post-close surge is vulnerable to reversing since it seems to be in reaction to a Fed speaker. But probing higher Tuesday has no reason not to test the outstanding 2019.50 objective before reversing down.
Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here:
https://roddavid10.mitel-nhwc.com/join/vsxhpkt
This evening, monitor overnight Globex trading in the chaRTroom at:
XP-Friendly || non-xp ilinc
Morning Bias
| TUE morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2019.00 | 2011.00 |
| …would target | 2024.00 | 2016.00 |
| Bias-down: under | 2012.25 | 2004.25 |
| …would target | 2007.50 | 1999.50 |
| Signal status: NO-BIAS, TESTED BOTH BIAS-DOWN PARAMETERS | FAQ | |
| INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 | ||
1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Pre-close View… Champing at the bit.
Chipping away at the afternoon highs.
The final hour of the day is essentially positioning for the next session. At least, the current day’s influences will have run their course. There’s no requirement to trend higher, but the only attractions are above, so this session is free to start trending up.
2007.50 resistance has been tested and retested and double secret retested all afternoon. The bias environment exit and final hour’s entry didn’t gain traction, but there is no sell signal. So, suddenly piercing fresh afternoon highs above 2007.50 gets a benefit of the doubt for being able to trend into the close.
Looking forward, assuming the balance of the session does trend, launching from a narrow range would make fresh highs likely to reverse back down. So, I’m giving the current fresh afternoon highs only so much benefit of the doubt.