S&P
Mid-day Update… Hostage to headlines.
Upside attraction neutralized, FOMC catalyst awaited.
Holding the open’s test of this morning’s 1979.00 bias-down signal had put into play an offsetting test of the 1990.00 bias-up signal. Surging into and out of noon attacked 1990.00to within 3 ticks, neutralizing its attraction.
It didn’t take long for a reaction down to 1984.50. Partly from having satisfied buyers, and partly from posturing defensively ahead of this afternoon’s FOMC news. A 4-point bounce resolved down, too, this time attacking 1980.00. Perhaps a little more defensiveness with the 30-year auction coming.
Now another bounce is testing 1988.00. FOMC news is at the top of the hour. Having avoided positive territory for this long, a rally could extend more durably. Regardless, there is no requirement to react in either direction.
Look ahead: Economic Calendar – for Fri Oct 9, 2015
A midday look ahead in preparation for economic reports and events scheduled for the next trading day.
Highlights: Friday’s two Fed speakers follow Thursday afternoon’s FOMC Minutes. They’re normally high-profile, but the timing adds extra focus on their comments, so also the potential for extra impact from them.
*Dennis Lockhart Speaks
9:15 AM ET
Import and Export Prices
8:30 AM ET
Wholesale Trade
10:00 AM ET
Baker-Hughes Rig Count
1:00 PM ET
*Charles Evans Speaks
1:30 PM ET
Afternoon Bias
| THU afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 1999.25 | 1990.75 |
| …would target | 2004.25 | 1996.00 |
| Bias-down: under | 1989.25 | 1981.00 |
| …would target | 1984.50 | 1976.00 |
| Signal status: NO-BIAS | FAQ | |
| INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 | ||
1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Post-open Review… Up, but not necessarily away.
Offsetting test above is in-play.
The overnight dip wasn’t recovered entirely before the open. The open’s fluctuations still touched the 1979.00 bias-down signal. It held through 10:15, triggering no-bias, and putting into play an offsetting test of the 1990.00 bias-up signal.
So, there’s high confidence in the path leading to 1990.00. The gap back to yesterday’s ~1988.00 close should be filled anyway, so its test is likely to be probed by a couple of points. A runaway rally isn’t likely, although an optimistic reaction to this afternoon’s FOMC Minutes is possible — doomed to failure, but possible.
Already a fresh post-open high has touched 1985.75. That was before 10:15, and without probing any higher, exiting the bias environment at 11:30 under the 1997.00bias-down would invalidate the upside objectives.
Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the pre-market Tour recording here:
delete
Pre-market Tour (recording & summary)
The open isn’t indicated to gap up. Since yesterday’s buyers didn’t gain traction, that makes a durable rally unlikely. It also makes any rally attempt less likely, but possible — just likely to fail if attempted. And today’s news flow has plenty of Fed catalysts capable of triggering attempts, left and right (or up and down).
Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the pre-market Tour recording here:
https://roddavid10.mitel-nhwc.com/join/xmmzszv